TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125275
Played Sep 13Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.97
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116311117116––
Kamil Rudomina
Away
1.69
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
116311117116––
H2H Rafal Stapor 15–26 Kamil Rudomina Rafal Stapor has won 15 of their 41 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stapor beat Rudomina 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:54What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Rudomina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-26 in 41
Rudomina
Wrong
gap of 11 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1434 vs Rudomina 1451
Rudomina
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Rudomina 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Rudomina 40%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +2 · Rudomina +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rudomina) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rudomina form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.97 / Rudomina 1.69
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rudomina)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125275
Stapor1.97
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 96 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back18% 30 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 99
Rudomina1.69
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 205 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it75% 146 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor4wins
AwayRudomina6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRudomina leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor75%3 of 4
AwayRudomina83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Rudomina6n = 10Rudomina took 6 of 10
S2Stapor4Rudomina6n = 10Rudomina took 6 of 10
S3Stapor5Rudomina5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor4Rudomina4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporRudominaS − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.639.7−5.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporRudominaBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1160 vs 974 / 209856.6%46.4%656 / 1160 vs 974 / 2098Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RudominaStapor 1.97/Rudomina 1.69
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Rudomina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:20R. Stapor47141111113K. Rudomina401213781
LAug 31 · 22:35R. Stapor30115861K. Rudomina4291111113
WAug 31 · 24:35R. Stapor49811811113K. Rudomina4411911852
LAug 27 · 09:00R. Stapor327111131K. Rudomina4411139113
LAug 24 · 24:35R. Stapor4051151182K. Rudomina50119118113
LAug 20 · 11:50R. Stapor281021151K. Rudomina4312119113
LAug 20 · 04:00R. Stapor351361151K. Rudomina4215115113
LAug 19 · 13:30R. Stapor168710K. Rudomina331111113
WAug 12 · 13:05R. Stapor3612112113K. Rudomina381081191
WAug 11 · 07:20R. Stapor331111113K. Rudomina215970
R. Stapor10
WSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113LSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.4591111113R. Stapor1.47117481LSep 13 · 17:20J. Glanowski1.7511129113R. Stapor1.909101121LSep 13 · 16:35A. Wos1.45891111113R. Stapor2.5511119582WSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 13 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.8061116572R. Stapor1.341191411113WSep 12 · 22:55D. Kotwica2.359620R. Stapor1.481111113WSep 12 · 22:15W. Gluszek2.50411561R. Stapor1.4211911113LSep 12 · 21:30A. Wos1.501111106113R. Stapor2.5066121152
K. Rudomina10
WSep 13 · 22:15K. Marchlewski3.3511781152K. Rudomina1.25811115113LSep 13 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.80118119113K. Rudomina1.9181191182LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113LSep 13 · 18:30J. Glanowski1.80941111113K. Rudomina1.9011116652WSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rudomina1.42128711113D. Kotwica2.50101111692LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rudomina2.0512117842A. Wos1.681091111113LSep 12 · 13:50K. Rudomina1.80581141R. Malinowski1.8611119113LSep 12 · 12:35K. Rudomina1.851011961G. Kesik1.8512911113WSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182
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