TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139833
Played Sep 17Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116611811115119
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched — 74.1% is still 74.1%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
74.1%
74.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 74.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 39–28 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 28 of their 67 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Kolek beat Sulkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:51What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-28 in 67
Kolek
Correct
gap of 11 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1681 vs Sulkowski 1481
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Sulkowski 40%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Sulkowski 40%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -2 · Sulkowski -3
Sulkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.36 / Sulkowski 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13139833
Kolek1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 254 of 421
Up 2–0, closes it94% 88 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 236
Sulkowski3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 154 of 474
Down 0–1, comes back17% 46 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek7wins
AwaySulkowski3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek57.1%4 of 7
AwaySulkowski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek7Sulkowski3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S2Kolek4Sulkowski6n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S3Kolek8Sulkowski2n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S4Kolek6Sulkowski4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S5Kolek2Sulkowski3n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekSulkowskiK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.239.2+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime704 / 1413 vs 559 / 126349.8%44.3%704 / 1413 vs 559 / 1263Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.36/Sulkowski 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 12:40M. Kolek4514611682B. Sulkowski491211411113
WAug 12 · 09:25M. Kolek4281111123B. Sulkowski351168101
WAug 8 · 22:55M. Kolek3911611113B. Sulkowski34811691
WAug 8 · 20:30M. Kolek49111278113B. Sulkowski43410111172
LJul 12 · 11:45M. Kolek4611691192B. Sulkowski48611119113
WJul 10 · 10:35M. Kolek45111211113B. Sulkowski30314671
WJul 9 · 03:20M. Kolek4112611123B. Sulkowski3910118101
LJun 18 · 11:25M. Kolek4211711582B. Sulkowski47811611113
WJun 14 · 06:10M. Kolek51911119113B. Sulkowski4011471172
WJun 11 · 08:10M. Kolek4291111113B. Sulkowski27114571
M. Kolek10
LSep 16 · 23:20M. Kolek1.835860D. Solilo1.831111113LSep 16 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00761271K. Staszczyk1.73111110113WSep 16 · 21:25M. Kolek1.2513119133J. Lamperski3.7511911111WSep 16 · 20:30D. Solilo1.83531281M. Kolek1.83111110113WSep 16 · 19:15M. Kolek2.25311811143M. Rutkowski1.57116119122LSep 16 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.2561113163M. Kolek1.5711711141WSep 16 · 16:55M. Minda1.918650M. Kolek1.801111113WSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski3.2511117992M. Kolek1.33991111113WSep 14 · 19:40M. Kolek1.6112911113K. Rudomina2.201011881LSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 16 · 23:45B. Sulkowski4.00911681K. Staszczyk1.2211911113LSep 16 · 22:55B. Sulkowski1.448118101J. Lamperski2.6311311123LSep 16 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.004780D. Solilo1.731111113WSep 16 · 19:40B. Sulkowski2.101471111113J. Zochniak1.67121113992WSep 16 · 18:30B. Sulkowski1.83116711113M. Minda1.8341111672LSep 16 · 17:20B. Sulkowski3.50611651M. Rutkowski1.2811711113LSep 16 · 16:05D. Solilo1.7313119123B. Sulkowski2.0011911101LSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski3.2511117992M. Kolek1.33991111113WSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171WSep 11 · 13:05B. Sulkowski1.8591113113B. Mleczko1.851151171
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Sep 17 · 15:25M. Kolek—M. Rutkowski——Sep 17 · 16:55M. Kolek—A. Mugowski——Sep 17 · 18:05M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 17 · 19:15M. Kolek—K. Rudomina——Sep 17 · 20:30M. Kolek—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek—A. Mugowski——Sep 17 · 21:50M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——Sep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 18 · 24:10M. Kolek—K. Rudomina——
B. Sulkowski
Nothing scheduled
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