TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13129327
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111149111012––
David Sabuka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · David Sabuka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12
75 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 2–1 David Sabuka David Sabuka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sabuka beat Jnr 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.73 / Sabuka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13129327
Jnr1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 63 of 84
Sabuka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 26 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJnr2wins
AwaySabuka1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderJnr leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%2 of 3
AwaySabukan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Sabuka0n = 3Jnr took 3 of 3
S2Jnr2Sabuka1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
S3Jnr0Sabuka3n = 3Sabuka took 3 of 3
S4Jnr1Sabuka2n = 3Sabuka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricJnrSabukaJ − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match44.040.3+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSabukaBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 480 vs 245 / 52051.3%47.1%246 / 480 vs 245 / 520Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.73/Sabuka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 14 · 10:30J. Jnr4213101091D. Sabuka46111212113
WSep 12 · 20:00J. Jnr4111118113D. Sabuka32681171
WJul 22 · 12:00J. Jnr49111197113D. Sabuka4375111192
J. Jnr10
LSep 14 · 12:00J. Jnr1.916101731M. Holub1.80111215113LSep 14 · 10:30D. Sabuka2.20111212113J. Jnr1.6113101091LSep 14 · 10:00F. Fryml1.9111128113J. Jnr1.805101171LSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 19:30J. Mejzlik1.53147811143J. Jnr2.381211118122WSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 18:00J. Jnr2.631112551J. Hanacek1.44131011113LSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102
D. Sabuka10
LSep 14 · 11:30D. Sabuka1.447101191F. Fryml2.6311127113WSep 14 · 10:30D. Sabuka2.20111212113J. Jnr1.6113101091LSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113WSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka1.911111113J. Mares1.804220LSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151WSep 12 · 18:00J. Seeman2.00123112132D. Sabuka1.7310111110153WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113
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