TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126395
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61110121715311––
Martin Holub
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 85 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 28–34 Martin Holub Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 28 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:32What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-34 in 62
Holub
Correct
gap of 6 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1324 vs Holub 1363
Holub
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Holub 40%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 30% vs Holub 50%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -4 · Holub -1
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.91 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13126395
Jnr1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 75 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back29% 21 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Holub1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 91 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayHolub4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%3 of 4
AwayHolub50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Jnr5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Jnr6Holub3n = 9Jnr took 6 of 9
S5Jnr2Holub1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrHolubJ − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.338.5+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 479 vs 363 / 66351.4%54.8%246 / 479 vs 363 / 663Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubJnr 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 13:08J. Jnr2791170M. Holub351113113
WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr4211911113M. Holub36911791
LAug 28 · 11:30J. Jnr32712761M. Holub43111011113
WAug 25 · 17:03J. Jnr4211911113M. Holub34911591
WAug 25 · 13:30J. Jnr481011115113M. Holub4212841172
WJul 18 · 10:00J. Jnr4391111123M. Holub371179101
WJul 17 · 09:30J. Jnr46511811113M. Holub4011411772
WJul 10 · 16:00J. Jnr4211119113M. Holub29651171
LJul 7 · 16:59J. Jnr29114681M. Holub3851111113
LJul 7 · 13:30J. Jnr4274111192M. Holub51111199113
J. Jnr10
LSep 14 · 12:33J. Jnr1.737119101D. Sabuka2.0011411123LSep 14 · 10:30D. Sabuka2.20111212113J. Jnr1.6113101091LSep 14 · 10:00F. Fryml1.9111128113J. Jnr1.805101171LSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 19:30J. Mejzlik1.53147811143J. Jnr2.381211118122WSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 18:00J. Jnr2.631112551J. Hanacek1.44131011113LSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102
M. Holub10
LSep 14 · 11:00F. Fryml2.2512913113M. Holub1.5710111191WSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113LSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171WSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112LSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153LSep 9 · 09:09M. Holub1.83511871L. Krutina1.8311611113WSep 9 · 08:00A. Akopyan2.201071461M. Holub1.61121112113WSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143LSep 9 · 05:30L. Krutina1.8011118153M. Holub1.916911131WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460
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