TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128669
Played Sep 16Finished
David Mutl
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911111511––––
Ludek Madle
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held David Mutl at 54.9%
48 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 4–3 Ludek Madle Ludek Madle has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mutl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1106 vs Madle 1130
Madle
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 40% vs Madle 0%
Mutl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 50% vs Madle 10%
Mutl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -3 · Madle -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Mutl) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 1.57 / Madle 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Mutl)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128669
Mutl1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 28 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Madle2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 39 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMutl4wins
AwayMadle3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMutl leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutl100%3 of 3
AwayMadle75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl3Madle4n = 7Madle took 4 of 7
S2Mutl3Madle4n = 7Madle took 4 of 7
S3Mutl4Madle3n = 7Mutl took 4 of 7
S4Mutl3Madle1n = 4Mutl took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMutlMadleMutl − MadleBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.135.3+0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 137 vs 259 / 54547.5%47.5%65 / 137 vs 259 / 545Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlMutl 1.57/Madle 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 16 · 02:00D. Mutl159150L. Madle331111113
WSep 14 · 12:30D. Mutl3811115113L. Madle29581151
LAug 3 · 22:30D. Mutl50981111112L. Madle46111174133
WJul 10 · 02:00D. Mutl4391112113L. Madle331171051
WMay 27 · 13:30D. Mutl331111113L. Madle227780
WMay 27 · 12:00D. Mutl501141410113L. Madle50611121292
LMay 18 · 06:30D. Mutl2471070L. Madle341112113
D. Mutl10
LSep 16 · 01:00D. Mutl2.105980J. Pelikan1.671111113LSep 16 · 24:00S. Mazanek1.301111113D. Mutl3.407650LSep 15 · 22:30M. Syroha2.00119119113D. Mutl1.7381191192WSep 14 · 13:30J. Cernik2.259460D. Mutl1.571111113WSep 14 · 12:30L. Madle1.73581151D. Mutl2.0011115113WSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191LSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik2.10551111113D. Mutl1.6711119772WSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.449790D. Mutl2.631111113
L. Madle10
LSep 16 · 24:30L. Madle2.2581111392M. Syroha1.57117711113LSep 15 · 23:00L. Madle2.0011815892S. Mazanek1.736111311113LSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102LSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 12:30L. Madle1.73581151D. Mutl2.0011115113LSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle1.50981131J. Cernik2.5011118113LSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 9 · 09:05L. Madle1.83911371L. Forman1.8311811113WSep 9 · 08:30M. Regner1.3368121182L. Madle3.251111109113LSep 9 · 07:30L. Madle1.618880J. Grohsgott2.201111113
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