TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124981
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
2.07
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118811611411––
Daniel Zelezny
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Jirka to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Lukas Jirka at 55.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 3–2 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jirka beat Zelezny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:49What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (55%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1529 vs Zelezny 1484
Jirka
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 20% vs Zelezny 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 40% vs Zelezny 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka -1 · Zelezny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezny) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 2.07 / Zelezny 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Zelezny)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13124981
Jirka2.07
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog57% won 16 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Zelezny1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJirka3wins
AwayZelezny2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderJirka leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka100%3 of 3
AwayZeleznyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka3Zelezny2n = 5Jirka took 3 of 5
S2Jirka2Zelezny3n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
S3Jirka3Zelezny2n = 5Jirka took 3 of 5
S4Jirka2Zelezny3n = 5Zelezny took 3 of 5
S5Jirka2Zelezny1n = 3Jirka took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJirkaZeleznyJ − ZBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.239.0+4.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 195 vs 109 / 21051.3%51.9%100 / 195 vs 109 / 210Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyJirka 2.07/Zelezny 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka45111156123D. Zelezny45671111102
LMay 24 · 15:25L. Jirka376911111D. Zelezny3811113133
WOct 27 · 19:45L. Jirka50119811113D. Zelezny4291111562
LOct 27 · 16:55L. Jirka4471111782D. Zelezny46115811113
WMar 27 · 20:50L. Jirka4011711113D. Zelezny24611611
L. Jirka10
LSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113LSep 8 · 21:20L. Jirka1.80851191B. Budik1.9111118113LSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101LSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:50L. Jirka1.861012911113B. Budik1.80121011852LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113
D. Zelezny10
WSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280LSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182LSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113LSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.803115101D. Zelezny1.9111511123LSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891LSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113LSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792
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