TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124489
Played Sep 13Finished
Bilski Bartosz
Home
1.84
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111311911114611
Karol Guzy
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
8111311911114611
H2H Bilski Bartosz 15–9 Karol Guzy Karol Guzy has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 10:50What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Bartosz
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartosz 1545 vs Guzy 1631
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartosz 80% vs Guzy 0%
Bartosz
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartosz 70% vs Guzy 30%
Bartosz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartosz +2 · Guzy -5
Guzy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartosz 1.84 / Guzy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Guzy)+3.9pp
TT Cup · #13124489
Bartosz1.84
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Guzy1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 164 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it92% 79 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 152
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartosz6wins
AwayGuzy4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBartosz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartosz100%4 of 4
AwayGuzy66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartosz4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Bartosz6Guzy4n = 10Bartosz took 6 of 10
S3Bartosz5Guzy5n = 10split evenly
S4Bartosz7Guzy0n = 7Bartosz took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartoszGuzyB − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.636.2+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartoszGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 223 vs 649 / 108452.5%59.9%117 / 223 vs 649 / 1084Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyBartosz 1.84/Guzy 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 19:35B. Bartosz45111211113K. Guzy38614991
LSep 10 · 14:00B. Bartosz4591531172K. Guzy511113115113
LJun 27 · 08:05B. Bartosz2785140K. Guzy381111163
WJun 26 · 17:00B. Bartosz4111811113K. Guzy34911771
WMay 20 · 18:00B. Bartosz331111113K. Guzy247980
LApr 29 · 14:00B. Bartosz3641141162K. Guzy46119114113
WApr 23 · 19:30B. Bartosz3711113123K. Guzy357711101
LApr 16 · 21:30B. Bartosz184860K. Guzy331111113
WApr 16 · 18:00B. Bartosz4171112113K. Guzy321171041
WApr 15 · 18:00B. Bartosz4381111133K. Guzy311163111
B. Bartosz10
WSep 13 · 08:35B. Bartosz2.151111910113D. Bucko1.5855111272WSep 13 · 06:35B. Bartosz2.041113113K. Zapala1.6451160LSep 12 · 20:45B. Bartosz2.759870A. Duch1.401111113WSep 12 · 19:35K. Guzy1.70614991B. Bartosz2.05111211113WSep 12 · 17:35A. Duch1.3810812131B. Bartosz2.85121110153WSep 12 · 16:05K. Zapala1.55610110B. Bartosz2.301112133WSep 12 · 15:05M. Szymanski1.48155661B. Bartosz2.36131111113LSep 10 · 21:40B. Bartosz2.401123101142K. Zapala1.51825129113WSep 10 · 20:30K. Zapala1.87511812112B. Bartosz1.831191110133LSep 10 · 19:30D. Bucko1.401111128113B. Bartosz2.6067141192
K. Guzy10
LSep 13 · 09:05A. Duch1.711111113K. Guzy2.003790LSep 13 · 08:05D. Bucko1.6611813113K. Guzy2.019111151LSep 13 · 07:35K. Guzy1.706890M. Szymanski2.051111113LSep 12 · 20:15M. Szymanski2.05113117113K. Guzy1.6841161142LSep 12 · 19:35K. Guzy1.70614991B. Bartosz2.05111211113LSep 12 · 18:35M. Szymanski2.101111113K. Guzy1.607870WSep 12 · 17:05K. Zapala2.00118912102K. Guzy1.727111110123LSep 12 · 15:35A. Duch1.831111113K. Guzy1.809650WSep 11 · 22:30K. Guzy1.831112113M. Szymanski1.8741070WSep 11 · 20:30K. Zapala2.55141261182K. Guzy1.411214117113
Upcoming Matches
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