TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122743
Played Sep 13Finished
Karol Guzy
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Mateusz Szymanski
Away
2.05
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:13 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Szymanski to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
611811911––––
H2H Karol Guzy 24–22 Mateusz Szymanski Mateusz Szymanski has won 22 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:13What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (55%)
Guzy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-22 in 46
Guzy
Wrong
gap of 2 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzy 1661 vs Szymanski 1628
Guzy
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzy 20% vs Szymanski 80%
Szymanski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzy 50% vs Szymanski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzy -3 · Szymanski +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szymanski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzy 1.70 / Szymanski 2.05
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Guzy)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13122743
Guzy1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 164 of 270
Up 2–0, closes it92% 79 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 152
Szymanski2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 27 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzy6wins
AwaySzymanski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzy80%4 of 5
AwaySzymanski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzy5Szymanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Guzy6Szymanski4n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S3Guzy4Szymanski6n = 10Szymanski took 6 of 10
S4Guzy3Szymanski3n = 6split evenly
S5Guzy3Szymanski1n = 4Guzy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzySzymanskiG − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.538.3−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzySzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime649 / 1082 vs 146 / 27060%54.1%649 / 1082 vs 146 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyGuzy 1.70/Szymanski 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Szymanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:35K. Guzy236890M. Szymanski331111113
LSep 12 · 20:15K. Guzy3641161142M. Szymanski43113117113
LSep 12 · 18:35K. Guzy227870M. Szymanski331111113
WSep 11 · 22:30K. Guzy341112113M. Szymanski2141070
WSep 11 · 15:30K. Guzy351311113M. Szymanski2711970
WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy511011811113M. Szymanski4912911892
WSep 5 · 15:35K. Guzy49713144113M. Szymanski501111121152
LSep 4 · 22:40K. Guzy30119911M. Szymanski4181111113
WSep 4 · 15:30K. Guzy4311138113M. Szymanski389111171
WAug 29 · 20:35K. Guzy521110137113M. Szymanski48812111162
K. Guzy10
LSep 12 · 20:15M. Szymanski2.05113117113K. Guzy1.6841161142LSep 12 · 19:35K. Guzy1.70614991B. Bartosz2.05111211113LSep 12 · 18:35M. Szymanski2.101111113K. Guzy1.607870WSep 12 · 17:05K. Zapala2.00118912102K. Guzy1.727111110123LSep 12 · 15:35A. Duch1.831111113K. Guzy1.809650WSep 11 · 22:30K. Guzy1.831112113M. Szymanski1.8741070WSep 11 · 20:30K. Zapala2.55141261182K. Guzy1.411214117113WSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 18:00P. Odelski2.2011117113K. Guzy1.57781161WSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113
M. Szymanski10
WSep 13 · 06:05A. Duch1.9013690M. Szymanski1.801511113WSep 12 · 20:15M. Szymanski2.05113117113K. Guzy1.6841161142WSep 12 · 19:05K. Zapala2.101178101M. Szymanski1.6081111123WSep 12 · 18:35M. Szymanski2.101111113K. Guzy1.607870LSep 12 · 16:35M. Szymanski1.83911111272A. Duch1.81117714113LSep 12 · 15:05M. Szymanski1.48155661B. Bartosz2.36131111113LSep 11 · 22:30K. Guzy1.831112113M. Szymanski1.8741070LSep 11 · 21:00M. Szymanski1.8741311582A. Duch1.831111311113WSep 11 · 19:00P. Odelski1.838101131M. Szymanski1.8611127113LSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113
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