TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13120678
Played Sep 12Finished
Adam Duch
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116115––––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
119116115––––
H2H Adam Duch 51–46 Karol Guzy Karol Guzy has won 46 of their 97 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:51What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (50%)
Guzy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-46 in 97
Duch
Correct
gap of 5 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Duch 1648 vs Guzy 1750
Guzy
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Duch 60% vs Guzy 80%
Guzy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Duch 60% vs Guzy 90%
Guzy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Duch +2 · Guzy +3
Guzy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDuch 1.83 / Guzy 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Guzy)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13120678
Duch1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 22 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Guzy1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 175 of 282
Up 2–0, closes it92% 82 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it83% 137 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDuch4wins
AwayGuzy6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDuch50%2 of 4
AwayGuzy66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Duch4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Duch4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S3Duch6Guzy4n = 10Duch took 6 of 10
S4Duch6Guzy2n = 8Duch took 6 of 8
S5Duch1Guzy4n = 5Guzy took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDuchGuzyD − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.5+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDuchGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 758 vs 648 / 107659.5%60.2%451 / 758 vs 648 / 1076Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyDuch 1.83/Guzy 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch164480K. Guzy331111113
LSep 10 · 20:00A. Duch4291112101K. Guzy4311614123
WSep 6 · 13:05A. Duch511111711113K. Guzy4313811562
WSep 5 · 23:35A. Duch3841111123K. Guzy341176101
LSep 5 · 20:05A. Duch4898111192K. Guzy43111137113
LSep 4 · 14:00A. Duch50891211102K. Guzy521111108123
LAug 8 · 08:35A. Duch3911841152K. Guzy49711119113
WAug 7 · 15:30A. Duch4111411153K. Guzy366116131
WAug 6 · 19:30A. Duch361111143K. Guzy2017120
LAug 5 · 17:00A. Duch45113118122K. Guzy52811811143
A. Duch10
WSep 11 · 22:00K. Zapala2.45118581A. Duch1.5071111113WSep 11 · 21:00M. Szymanski1.8741311582A. Duch1.831111311113LSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 17:30K. Zapala2.3911115143A. Duch1.476811121WSep 11 · 15:00T. Stachera2.951199101A. Duch1.3691111123WSep 11 · 14:30P. Odelski2.10119881A. Duch1.6091111113LSep 10 · 22:10A. Duch1.57681111142P. Odelski2.30111167163LSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 19:00A. Duch1.8011911113P. Odelski1.86311661WSep 10 · 18:00A. Duch1.311111113B. Bartosz3.005980
K. Guzy10
WSep 11 · 22:30K. Guzy1.831112113M. Szymanski1.8741070WSep 11 · 20:30K. Zapala2.55141261182K. Guzy1.411214117113WSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 18:00P. Odelski2.2011117113K. Guzy1.57781161WSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113WSep 11 · 14:00T. Stachera2.951461471K. Guzy1.31121116113WSep 10 · 22:40K. Guzy1.871111138113D. Bucko1.8344151172WSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 18:30K. Guzy1.361110915123K. Zapala2.809121113102WSep 10 · 17:00K. Guzy1.761141112113P. Odelski1.90711131092
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