TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13124007
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukasz Pietraszko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6113111210911––
Gracjan Kesik
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Pietraszko above · Gracjan Kesik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 54.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Pietraszko 4–2 Gracjan Kesik Gracjan Kesik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pietraszko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Pietraszko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pietraszko 1612 vs Kesik 1544
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pietraszko 0% vs Kesik 20%
Kesik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pietraszko 30% vs Kesik 50%
Kesik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pietraszko -5 · Kesik -2
Pietraszko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Pietraszko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kesik form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPietraszko 1.53 / Kesik 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Pietraszko)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13124007
Pietraszko1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 117 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it81% 82 of 101
Kesik2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 54 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back34% 21 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePietraszko4wins
AwayKesik2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPietraszko leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePietraszko66.7%2 of 3
AwayKesik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pietraszko3Kesik3n = 6split evenly
S2Pietraszko4Kesik2n = 6Pietraszko took 4 of 6
S3Pietraszko5Kesik1n = 6Pietraszko took 5 of 6
S4Pietraszko2Kesik3n = 5Kesik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPietraszkoKesikP − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.835.8+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPietraszkoKesikBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 848 vs 323 / 59950.2%53.9%426 / 848 vs 323 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoPietraszko 1.53/Kesik 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kesik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 19 · 23:45L. Pietraszko31951161G. Kesik3811115113
WJul 19 · 21:20L. Pietraszko4291111113G. Kesik32116781
LApr 6 · 15:50L. Pietraszko491111107102G. Kesik50691211123
WApr 6 · 09:25L. Pietraszko4291111113G. Kesik29118371
WApr 6 · 08:35L. Pietraszko331111113G. Kesik249870
WFeb 16 · 16:50L. Pietraszko48117118113G. Kesik4291141172
L. Pietraszko10
LSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280LSep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.441111113L. Pietraszko2.637470LSep 13 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10118371D. Jadam1.6781111113LSep 13 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.38119971K. Staszczyk1.5381111113LSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113WSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113
G. Kesik10
LSep 13 · 19:15D. Jadam1.6171111113G. Kesik2.20115691LSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132WSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143LSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252LSep 13 · 14:15G. Kesik1.517101161M. Piecowski2.2911127113WSep 13 · 12:35P. Maruszak1.9591170G. Kesik1.741113113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Piotrowski2.1010260G. Kesik1.651211113LSep 13 · 10:55G. Kesik2.65631121M. Kolek1.4011118113WSep 13 · 09:45G. Kesik2.255171211133D. Solilo1.541115144112WSep 12 · 19:40D. Kotwica2.5586100G. Kesik1.411111123
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