TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122253
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189111012113411
Dmytro Neborak
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 132–61 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 61 of their 193 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:13What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shkurupii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
132-61 in 193
Shkurupii
Wrong
gap of 71 in 193, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1615 vs Neborak 1702
Neborak
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 20% vs Neborak 60%
Neborak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 20% vs Neborak 70%
Neborak
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -3 · Neborak -1
Shkurupii
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shkurupii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 1.61 / Neborak 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shkurupii)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13122253
Shkurupii1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 64 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it74% 51 of 69
Neborak2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 113 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back16% 29 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii4wins
AwayNeborak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeborak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii66.7%4 of 6
AwayNeborak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii6Neborak4n = 10Shkurupii took 6 of 10
S2Shkurupii4Neborak6n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S3Shkurupii4Neborak6n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S4Shkurupii4Neborak2n = 6Shkurupii took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiNeborakS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.937.3−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 741 vs 304 / 83548.3%36.4%358 / 741 vs 304 / 835Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiShkurupii 1.61/Neborak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii45119101142D. Neborak45811123113
LSep 12 · 12:30O. Shkurupii2274110D. Neborak341111123
LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii25113110D. Neborak391115133
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Shkurupii4812138153D. Neborak45101111131
LAug 29 · 15:30O. Shkurupii3758111122D. Neborak50111199103
LAug 29 · 14:30O. Shkurupii321161141D. Neborak364111383
WAug 16 · 09:30O. Shkurupii4111117123D. Neborak316411101
LAug 16 · 04:30O. Shkurupii33851281D. Neborak43111110113
WAug 15 · 15:30O. Shkurupii331112103D. Neborak2691070
WAug 15 · 14:30O. Shkurupii331111113D. Neborak247890
O. Shkurupii10
LSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:21A. Tur2.6396111363O. Shkurupii1.44111191132LSep 12 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.73851151A. Tur2.0011118113WSep 12 · 15:00S. Hohenko1.445711101O. Shkurupii2.6311114123LSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660LSep 12 · 12:30D. Neborak2.251111123O. Shkurupii1.5774110LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133
D. Neborak10
LSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:30D. Neborak2.2511112A. Tur1.57690WSep 12 · 12:30D. Neborak2.251111123O. Shkurupii1.5774110LSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123WSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532WAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133
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