TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122012
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Shkurupii
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411511117611––
Oleksandr Zhurba
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 77.1% is still 77.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
77.1%
77.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Oleksandr Zhurba below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 77.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 72–150 Oleksandr Zhurba Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 72 of their 222 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Zhurba beat Shkurupii 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zhurba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-150 in 222
Zhurba
Correct
gap of 78 in 222, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1636 vs Zhurba 1952
Zhurba
Correct
both rated, 316 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 20% vs Zhurba 60%
Zhurba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 20% vs Zhurba 70%
Zhurba
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -2 · Zhurba -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Zhurba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 3.50 / Zhurba 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Zhurba)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122012
Shkurupii3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 32 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 50
Zhurba1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 173 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it98% 106 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it87% 138 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii3wins
AwayZhurba7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii75%3 of 4
AwayZhurba100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii4Zhurba6n = 10Zhurba took 6 of 10
S2Shkurupii1Zhurba9n = 10Zhurba took 9 of 10
S3Shkurupii2Zhurba8n = 10Zhurba took 8 of 10
S4Shkurupii2Zhurba1n = 3Shkurupii took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiZhurbaS − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match27.735.2−7.5per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiZhurbaBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 738 vs 465 / 71148.5%65.4%358 / 738 vs 465 / 711Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaShkurupii 3.50/Zhurba 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.1%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zhurba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Shkurupii165380O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii176560O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii257990O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 29 · 12:00O. Shkurupii207670O. Zhurba331111113
WAug 16 · 08:00O. Shkurupii341111123O. Zhurba2697100
LAug 16 · 07:00O. Shkurupii29117471O. Zhurba4181111113
WAug 15 · 17:00O. Shkurupii4311912113O. Zhurba325111061
LAug 15 · 12:00O. Shkurupii1951040O. Zhurba341112113
WAug 2 · 10:00O. Shkurupii47115713113O. Zhurba51911111192
LAug 2 · 05:00O. Shkurupii2769120O. Zhurba361111143
O. Shkurupii10
LSep 12 · 17:21A. Tur2.6396111363O. Shkurupii1.44111191132LSep 12 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.73851151A. Tur2.0011118113WSep 12 · 15:00S. Hohenko1.445711101O. Shkurupii2.6311114123LSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660LSep 12 · 12:30D. Neborak2.251111123O. Shkurupii1.5774110LAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380LAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii1.67113110D. Neborak2.101115133WAug 30 · 06:30D. Neborak2.25101111131O. Shkurupii1.5712138153LAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113
O. Zhurba10
WSep 13 · 05:30S. Hohenko3.503970O. Zhurba1.281111113LSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192WSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660WSep 12 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.30471111113A. Tur3.4011115742WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380WAug 30 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.1791111143D. Neborak4.501177121LAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182WAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680
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