TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121989
Played Sep 13Finished
Serhii Hohenko
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911711––––
Oleksandr Zhurba
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Hohenko above · Oleksandr Zhurba below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 79.4%
52 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Hohenko 1–10 Oleksandr Zhurba Serhii Hohenko has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Hohenko beat Zhurba 2-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zhurba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Zhurba
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hohenko 1774 vs Zhurba 1956
Zhurba
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hohenko 80% vs Zhurba 60%
Hohenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hohenko 70% vs Zhurba 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hohenko +2 · Zhurba +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Zhurba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHohenko 3.50 / Zhurba 1.28
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Zhurba)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13121989
Hohenko3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog21% won 3 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Zhurba1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 173 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it98% 106 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it87% 138 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHohenko1wins
AwayZhurba9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHohenko0%0 of 3
AwayZhurba85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hohenko3Zhurba7n = 10Zhurba took 7 of 10
S2Hohenko5Zhurba5n = 10split evenly
S3Hohenko2Zhurba8n = 10Zhurba took 8 of 10
S4Hohenko3Zhurba6n = 9Zhurba took 6 of 9
S5Hohenko1Zhurba3n = 4Zhurba took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHohenkoZhurbaH − ZBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.943.5−6.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHohenkoZhurbaBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 54 vs 466 / 71253.7%65.5%29 / 54 vs 466 / 712Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaHohenko 3.50/Zhurba 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zhurba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko49811118113O. Zhurba4211571182
LAug 30 · 07:00S. Hohenko206680O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 29 · 15:00S. Hohenko42711111122O. Zhurba48111367113
LAug 29 · 14:00S. Hohenko26911331O. Zhurba3611411103
LAug 16 · 10:00S. Hohenko4871181482O. Zhurba511161112113
LAug 16 · 05:00S. Hohenko31512591O. Zhurba43111011113
LAug 15 · 14:00S. Hohenko28117461O. Zhurba4181111113
LAug 2 · 09:00S. Hohenko4681171192O. Zhurba48119116113
LAug 2 · 05:30S. Hohenko371311491O. Zhurba46111311113
LAug 1 · 14:59S. Hohenko421281391O. Zhurba47101115113
S. Hohenko10
WSep 13 · 04:30S. Hohenko1.5011113113D. Neborak2.50451151WSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192LSep 12 · 15:00S. Hohenko1.445711101O. Shkurupii2.6311114123WAug 30 · 09:30S. Hohenko1.2511117113D. Neborak3.75501161WAug 30 · 08:30S. Hohenko1.501211123O. Shkurupii2.50107100WAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182LAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680WAug 30 · 06:00O. Shkurupii2.387780S. Hohenko1.531111113WAug 30 · 04:30D. Neborak2.2511611672S. Hohenko1.57911811113LAug 29 · 17:30D. Neborak2.5011115133S. Hohenko1.507611111
O. Zhurba10
WSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113LSep 12 · 17:37D. Neborak4.501171311113O. Zhurba1.1771115782LSep 12 · 16:30O. Zhurba1.22117691S. Hohenko4.004111192WSep 12 · 15:30O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.507750WSep 12 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.301111113O. Shkurupii3.406660WSep 12 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.30471111113A. Tur3.4011115742WAug 30 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.331111113O. Shkurupii3.255380WAug 30 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.1791111143D. Neborak4.501177121LAug 30 · 08:00S. Hohenko3.50811118113O. Zhurba1.2811571182WAug 30 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113S. Hohenko3.506680
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