TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122104
Played Sep 13Finished
Maksym Hubenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116811115711
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Hubenko above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Hubenko 28–27 Serhii Aristarkhov Serhii Aristarkhov has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hubenko 1645 vs Aristarkhov 1652
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hubenko 40% vs Aristarkhov 20%
Hubenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hubenko 30% vs Aristarkhov 60%
Aristarkhov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hubenko +1 · Aristarkhov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hubenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHubenko 1.83 / Aristarkhov 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hubenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122104
Hubenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Aristarkhov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHubenko5wins
AwayAristarkhov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHubenko60%3 of 5
AwayAristarkhov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hubenko5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S2Hubenko4Aristarkhov6n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S3Hubenko5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S4Hubenko5Aristarkhov2n = 7Hubenko took 5 of 7
S5Hubenko1Aristarkhov2n = 3Aristarkhov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHubenkoAristarkhovH − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.637.7+1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHubenkoAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1042 vs 327 / 59953.1%54.6%553 / 1042 vs 327 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoHubenko 1.83/Aristarkhov 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko25121120S. Aristarkhov30141333
LSep 5 · 12:30M. Hubenko4211491442S. Aristarkhov516111112113
LAug 30 · 13:00M. Hubenko279990S. Aristarkhov331111113
WAug 16 · 14:30M. Hubenko44111111113S. Aristarkhov25341351
WAug 7 · 08:30M. Hubenko4617612113S. Aristarkhov4115111051
WJul 26 · 06:30M. Hubenko50514117133S. Aristarkhov531112811112
WJul 19 · 05:00M. Hubenko331111113S. Aristarkhov172690
LJul 17 · 05:00M. Hubenko337411111S. Aristarkhov3911114133
LJul 5 · 06:30M. Hubenko501261011112S. Aristarkhov501011124133
WJul 4 · 12:00M. Hubenko4671711113S. Aristarkhov381115571
M. Hubenko10
WSep 13 · 15:00D. Prylepa2.50341161M. Hubenko1.501111862LSep 13 · 14:00A. Vasylets2.5011611793M. Hubenko1.5051161172WSep 13 · 12:30O. Syksa2.63137413102M. Hubenko1.4411111111113LSep 11 · 16:30M. Hubenko2.753220R. Ivanov1.401111113LSep 11 · 15:30M. Hubenko4.00811691I. Fedoryshyn1.2211911113LSep 11 · 14:00M. Hubenko3.2591280A. Kasyanov1.331114113LSep 11 · 13:00M. Hubenko2.755790S. Chuhai1.401111113WSep 10 · 17:29M. Hubenko2.1513163143A. Lushchyk1.62111411121LSep 10 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.5331111113M. Hubenko2.38115981LSep 10 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.22121192113M. Hubenko4.00105111192
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 13 · 14:30O. Syksa2.0011112113S. Aristarkhov1.73981191WSep 13 · 13:00A. Vasylets2.50771181S. Aristarkhov1.5011115103LSep 13 · 12:00D. Prylepa2.631111123S. Aristarkhov1.4477100LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163
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