TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122085
Played Sep 13Finished
Dmytro Prylepa
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171171210––––
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Prylepa above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 68.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Prylepa 18–48 Serhii Aristarkhov Dmytro Prylepa has won 18 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Aristarkhov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-48 in 66
Aristarkhov
Wrong
gap of 30 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prylepa 1471 vs Aristarkhov 1700
Aristarkhov
Wrong
both rated, 229 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prylepa 20% vs Aristarkhov 60%
Aristarkhov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prylepa 30% vs Aristarkhov 80%
Aristarkhov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prylepa +1 · Aristarkhov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Aristarkhov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prylepa form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrylepa 2.63 / Aristarkhov 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122085
Prylepa2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 48 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 68
Aristarkhov1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 104 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrylepa3wins
AwayAristarkhov7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrylepa60%3 of 5
AwayAristarkhov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prylepa5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S2Prylepa7Aristarkhov3n = 10Prylepa took 7 of 10
S3Prylepa3Aristarkhov7n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S4Prylepa2Aristarkhov5n = 7Aristarkhov took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrylepaAristarkhovP − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.836.5−2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrylepaAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 802 vs 326 / 59649.1%54.7%394 / 802 vs 326 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovPrylepa 2.63/Aristarkhov 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Prylepa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa3631141172S. Aristarkhov48118117113
LAug 30 · 15:30D. Prylepa31661181S. Aristarkhov3911116113
LAug 23 · 05:30D. Prylepa36811981S. Aristarkhov3811511113
WAug 16 · 12:00D. Prylepa331111113S. Aristarkhov227870
WAug 3 · 04:30D. Prylepa4211119113S. Aristarkhov30671161
LJul 25 · 13:30D. Prylepa25117611S. Aristarkhov3741111113
LJun 13 · 12:30D. Prylepa2815940S. Aristarkhov391711113
LMay 30 · 14:00D. Prylepa27511921S. Aristarkhov4111811113
WMay 16 · 15:30D. Prylepa341112113S. Aristarkhov2341090
LMay 14 · 08:00D. Prylepa4611117892S. Aristarkhov48871111113
D. Prylepa10
WSep 10 · 11:00O. Kurylenko2.1011119982D. Prylepa1.67991111113LSep 10 · 10:00S. Maliuk2.10111111113D. Prylepa1.67613861LSep 10 · 08:30O. Syksa1.501114113D. Prylepa2.5061280LSep 10 · 06:30O. Lyman3.25111169113D. Prylepa1.3338111192LSep 10 · 04:30S. Miroshnychenko3.251111113D. Prylepa1.339890LSep 7 · 10:30D. Prylepa2.5051090O. Syksa1.501112113WSep 7 · 09:00D. Prylepa1.5311119113D. Kuzmenko2.38961161WSep 7 · 07:30D. Prylepa1.619111011113O. Kurylenko2.2011412842LSep 7 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.61115551S. Maliuk2.2091111113LSep 7 · 04:30D. Prylepa3.00119471S. Chuhai1.3691111113
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442
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