TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084283
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Prylepa
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311118411117711
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Prylepa above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 84 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 68.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Prylepa 18–48 Serhii Aristarkhov Dmytro Prylepa has won 18 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:50What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-48 in 66
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 30 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prylepa 1517 vs Aristarkhov 1744
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 227 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prylepa 20% vs Aristarkhov 100%
Aristarkhov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prylepa 40% vs Aristarkhov 80%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prylepa -2 · Aristarkhov +5
Aristarkhov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Aristarkhov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrylepa 2.63 / Aristarkhov 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084283
Prylepa2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 47 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back10% 9 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Aristarkhov1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrylepa3wins
AwayAristarkhov7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrylepa60%3 of 5
AwayAristarkhov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prylepa5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S2Prylepa7Aristarkhov3n = 10Prylepa took 7 of 10
S3Prylepa3Aristarkhov7n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S4Prylepa2Aristarkhov5n = 7Aristarkhov took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrylepaAristarkhovP − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.836.5−2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrylepaAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 797 vs 328 / 59749.3%54.9%393 / 797 vs 328 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovPrylepa 2.63/Aristarkhov 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa—31141172S. Aristarkhov—118117113
LAug 30 · 15:30D. Prylepa—661181S. Aristarkhov—11116113
LAug 23 · 05:30D. Prylepa—811981S. Aristarkhov—11511113
WAug 16 · 12:00D. Prylepa—1111113S. Aristarkhov—7870
WAug 3 · 04:30D. Prylepa—11119113S. Aristarkhov—671161
LJul 25 · 13:30D. Prylepa—117611S. Aristarkhov—41111113
LJun 13 · 12:30D. Prylepa—15940S. Aristarkhov—1711113
LMay 30 · 14:00D. Prylepa—511921S. Aristarkhov—11811113
WMay 16 · 15:30D. Prylepa—1112113S. Aristarkhov—41090
LMay 14 · 08:00D. Prylepa—11117892S. Aristarkhov—871111113
D. Prylepa10
LSep 7 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.61115551S. Maliuk2.2091111113LSep 7 · 04:30D. Prylepa3.00119471S. Chuhai1.3691111113WSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881WSep 6 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov1.5011116762D. Prylepa2.50791111113LSep 6 · 08:00D. Prylepa2.50111301162O. Syksa1.50215116113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.531211113D. Prylepa2.3810570LSep 4 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.5767111192S. Maliuk2.25111168113LSep 4 · 09:00O. Syksa1.4411117123D. Prylepa2.638911101WSep 4 · 08:00D. Prylepa1.3611611113O. Lyman3.00711651LSep 4 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.531181110133D. Prylepa2.38911512112
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
Upcoming Matches
D. Prylepa
S. Aristarkhov
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