TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079080
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711114121084––
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-4
Point 67 set 4, 8-4 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 73.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 15–5 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1662 vs Kuzmenko 1588
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Kuzmenko 100%
Kuzmenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Kuzmenko 80%
Kuzmenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +2 · Kuzmenko +5
Kuzmenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.33 / Kuzmenko 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079080
Aristarkhov1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 111 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it83% 79 of 95
Kuzmenko3.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 108 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back18% 32 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov8wins
AwayKuzmenko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov80%8 of 10
AwayKuzmenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov10Kuzmenko0n = 10Aristarkhov took 10 of 10
S2Aristarkhov5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Aristarkhov7Kuzmenko3n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S4Aristarkhov5Kuzmenko2n = 7Aristarkhov took 5 of 7
S5Aristarkhov1Kuzmenko2n = 3Kuzmenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoA − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match40.232.6+7.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 593 vs 376 / 91354.6%41.2%324 / 593 vs 376 / 913Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.33/Kuzmenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov—111011113D. Kuzmenko—912681
WAug 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov—1111113D. Kuzmenko—9140
WAug 3 · 07:30S. Aristarkhov—12511113D. Kuzmenko—1011681
WJul 25 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov—119911113D. Kuzmenko—91111892
LJul 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov—119117102D. Kuzmenko—611711123
WJul 4 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov—1111113D. Kuzmenko—7860
WJun 6 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov—1111113D. Kuzmenko—7930
WMay 17 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov—14117113D. Kuzmenko—1261121
LFeb 14 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov—11411742D. Kuzmenko—511911113
WJan 31 · 15:30S. Aristarkhov—11119113D. Kuzmenko—481161
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
D. Kuzmenko10
LSep 7 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.005670O. Kurylenko1.731111113LSep 5 · 17:39D. Kuzmenko3.401399101V. Tatarnykov1.30111111123LSep 5 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.28138611133D. Kuzmenko3.501111119112WSep 5 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov1.307111071D. Kuzmenko3.4011412113WSep 5 · 12:00A. Vasylets1.5011610101D. Kuzmenko2.5081112123WSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman3.258560D. Kuzmenko1.331111113WSep 3 · 10:00S. Miroshnychenko2.384630D. Kuzmenko1.531111113WSep 3 · 08:30S. Maliuk1.8311711462D. Kuzmenko1.83511511113WSep 3 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.80119711102D. Kuzmenko1.91511113123WSep 3 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.107860D. Kuzmenko1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
S. Aristarkhov
Nothing scheduled
D. Kuzmenko
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