TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066764
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Maliuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115711115411611
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Maliuk above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 82 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Maliuk at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maliuk 35–33 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 33 of their 68 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kuzmenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-33 in 68
Maliuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maliuk 1493 vs Kuzmenko 1530
Kuzmenko
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maliuk 80% vs Kuzmenko 60%
Maliuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maliuk 60% vs Kuzmenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maliuk -1 · Kuzmenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kuzmenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaliuk 1.83 / Kuzmenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13066764
Maliuk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kuzmenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaliuk5wins
AwayKuzmenko5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaliuk60%3 of 5
AwayKuzmenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maliuk5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Maliuk2Kuzmenko8n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S3Maliuk6Kuzmenko4n = 10Maliuk took 6 of 10
S4Maliuk6Kuzmenko3n = 9Maliuk took 6 of 9
S5Maliuk3Kuzmenko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaliukKuzmenkoM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.742.6−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaliukKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 479 vs 373 / 91149.9%40.9%239 / 479 vs 373 / 911Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoMaliuk 1.83/Kuzmenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:00S. Maliuk—119131D. Kuzmenko—91111113
WAug 27 · 09:30S. Maliuk—13911143D. Kuzmenko—11118121
LAug 25 · 11:30S. Maliuk—107121152D. Kuzmenko—1211103113
WAug 18 · 06:30S. Maliuk—671112113D. Kuzmenko—111191062
LAug 14 · 10:00S. Maliuk—105110D. Kuzmenko—1211133
LAug 6 · 05:00S. Maliuk—47111282D. Kuzmenko—1111710113
WAug 5 · 11:30S. Maliuk—116116113D. Kuzmenko—91161122
LJul 30 · 10:00S. Maliuk—11118832D. Kuzmenko—951111113
WJul 29 · 07:30S. Maliuk—871111113D. Kuzmenko—11118652
WJul 22 · 11:00S. Maliuk—11119113D. Kuzmenko—871191
S. Maliuk10
LSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.831111113S. Maliuk1.839440WSep 7 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.61115551S. Maliuk2.2091111113LSep 7 · 05:00O. Syksa1.611110911113S. Maliuk2.2051211972WSep 4 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.5767111192S. Maliuk2.25111168113WSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.531111113S. Maliuk2.388690LSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.7351111113S. Maliuk2.00117781WSep 4 · 04:30O. Syksa1.57117121162S. Maliuk2.25811149113LSep 3 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.736121014113S. Maliuk2.001110121282LSep 3 · 09:30S. Maliuk2.008780O. Kurylenko1.731111113
D. Kuzmenko10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.831111113S. Maliuk1.839440LSep 7 · 07:00O. Syksa1.6711911113D. Kuzmenko2.10911861LSep 7 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.005670O. Kurylenko1.731111113LSep 5 · 17:39D. Kuzmenko3.401399101V. Tatarnykov1.30111111123LSep 5 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.28138611133D. Kuzmenko3.501111119112LSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov1.307111071D. Kuzmenko3.4011412113WSep 5 · 12:00A. Vasylets1.5011610101D. Kuzmenko2.5081112123WSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman3.258560D. Kuzmenko1.331111113WSep 3 · 10:00S. Miroshnychenko2.384630D. Kuzmenko1.531111113
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