TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072944
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksandr Lyman
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012811––––
Serhii Maliuk
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Serhii Maliuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Maliuk at 62.4%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 25–39 Serhii Maliuk Oleksandr Lyman has won 25 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Maliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-39 in 64
Maliuk
Correct
gap of 14 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1369 vs Maliuk 1457
Maliuk
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 0% vs Maliuk 20%
Maliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 30% vs Maliuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -5 · Maliuk -2
Lyman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Maliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maliuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.38 / Maliuk 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Maliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13072944
Lyman2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 56 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 73
Maliuk1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 63 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it75% 46 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman3wins
AwayMaliuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaliuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLymann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaliuk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman2Maliuk8n = 10Maliuk took 8 of 10
S2Lyman3Maliuk7n = 10Maliuk took 7 of 10
S3Lyman5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Lyman2Maliuk4n = 6Maliuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanMaliukL − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.039.5−6.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanMaliukBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 607 vs 240 / 48545%49.5%273 / 607 vs 240 / 485Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaliukLyman 2.38/Maliuk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Maliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:00O. Lyman—61211113S. Maliuk—1110671
LSep 1 · 10:30O. Lyman—7750S. Maliuk—1111113
WAug 27 · 10:30O. Lyman—11711113S. Maliuk—911981
LAug 26 · 08:30O. Lyman—57120S. Maliuk—1111143
LAug 25 · 06:00O. Lyman—61111772S. Maliuk—119811113
LAug 20 · 09:00O. Lyman—1071471S. Maliuk—121112113
LAug 19 · 10:00O. Lyman—41590S. Maliuk—1117113
LJun 11 · 04:30O. Lyman—2950S. Maliuk—1111113
WJun 10 · 10:30O. Lyman—712116113S. Maliuk—111091192
LJun 4 · 07:00O. Lyman—1171081S. Maliuk—31112113
O. Lyman10
LSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881LSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa1.2011136113O. Lyman4.338111141LSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791LSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 08:00D. Prylepa1.3611611113O. Lyman3.00711651LSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa1.251111113O. Lyman3.757780LSep 4 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.256121011113O. Lyman3.75111012892LSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman3.258560D. Kuzmenko1.331111113
S. Maliuk10
LSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.831111113S. Maliuk1.839440WSep 7 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.61115551S. Maliuk2.2091111113LSep 7 · 05:00O. Syksa1.611110911113S. Maliuk2.2051211972WSep 4 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.5767111192S. Maliuk2.25111168113LSep 4 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.531111113S. Maliuk2.388690LSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.7351111113S. Maliuk2.00117781WSep 4 · 04:30O. Syksa1.57117121162S. Maliuk2.25811149113LSep 3 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.736121014113S. Maliuk2.001110121282LSep 3 · 09:30S. Maliuk2.008780O. Kurylenko1.731111113LSep 3 · 08:30S. Maliuk1.8311711462D. Kuzmenko1.83511511113
Upcoming Matches
O. Lyman
Nothing scheduled
S. Maliuk
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