TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084445
Played Sep 6Finished
Volodymyr Tatarnykov
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811114111––
Oleksandr Lyman
Away
5.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Tatarnykov to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVolodymyr Tatarnykov above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 63 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Volodymyr Tatarnykov at 86.8%
63 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Tatarnykov 30–5 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 5 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Tatarnykov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-5 in 35
Tatarnykov
Wrong
gap of 25 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tatarnykov 1627 vs Lyman 1399
Tatarnykov
Wrong
both rated, 228 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tatarnykov 40% vs Lyman 20%
Tatarnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tatarnykov 60% vs Lyman 30%
Tatarnykov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tatarnykov +2 · Lyman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Tatarnykov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tatarnykov form (40%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTatarnykov 1.14 / Lyman 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Tatarnykov)+5.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084445
Tatarnykov1.14
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 53 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it81% 35 of 43
Lyman5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 57 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back15% 19 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTatarnykov8wins
AwayLyman2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTatarnykov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTatarnykov100%5 of 5
AwayLyman40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tatarnykov5Lyman5n = 10split evenly
S2Tatarnykov7Lyman3n = 10Tatarnykov took 7 of 10
S3Tatarnykov10Lyman0n = 10Tatarnykov took 10 of 10
S4Tatarnykov4Lyman2n = 6Tatarnykov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTatarnykovLymanT − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.129.5+8.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTatarnykovLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 412 vs 275 / 61052.4%45.1%216 / 412 vs 275 / 610Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TatarnykovTatarnykov 1.14/Lyman 5.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
86.8%
Tatarnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov—681111O. Lyman—11114113
WAug 22 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov—1111143O. Lyman—92120
WJun 20 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov—1111113O. Lyman—5930
WJun 6 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov—111211113O. Lyman—1310351
WMay 23 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov—114119113O. Lyman—41151132
WMay 9 · 14:30V. Tatarnykov—71111123O. Lyman—1145101
WMay 2 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov—1111113O. Lyman—7490
WApr 25 · 17:15V. Tatarnykov—10111283O. Lyman—1291011
WApr 25 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov—1112133O. Lyman—410110
LApr 11 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov—108111142O. Lyman—121184113
V. Tatarnykov10
WSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112LSep 6 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov1.5011116762D. Prylepa2.50791111113LSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.5311118113O. Syksa2.38881151WSep 5 · 17:39D. Kuzmenko3.401399101V. Tatarnykov1.30111111123WSep 5 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov1.50611118113A. Vasylets2.5011671162LSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163LSep 5 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov2.0010960M. Hubenko1.731211113LSep 5 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov1.307111071D. Kuzmenko3.4011412113LAug 23 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov1.331011891O. Ziakun3.2512711113
O. Lyman10
LSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881LSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa1.2011136113O. Lyman4.338111141LSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791LSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:00D. Prylepa1.3611611113O. Lyman3.00711651LSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa1.251111113O. Lyman3.757780LSep 4 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.256121011113O. Lyman3.75111012892LSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman3.258560D. Kuzmenko1.331111113
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