TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084325
Played Sep 6Finished
Volodymyr Tatarnykov
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113113811811––
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Tatarnykov above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 58.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Tatarnykov 49–80 Serhii Aristarkhov Volodymyr Tatarnykov has won 49 of their 129 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:00What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-80 in 129
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 31 in 129, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tatarnykov 1621 vs Aristarkhov 1700
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tatarnykov 60% vs Aristarkhov 100%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tatarnykov 50% vs Aristarkhov 80%
Aristarkhov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tatarnykov +1 · Aristarkhov +5
Aristarkhov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTatarnykov 2.25 / Aristarkhov 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084325
Tatarnykov2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 22 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Aristarkhov1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 118 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTatarnykov2wins
AwayAristarkhov8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTatarnykov50%2 of 4
AwayAristarkhov100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tatarnykov4Aristarkhov6n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S2Tatarnykov5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S3Tatarnykov2Aristarkhov8n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S4Tatarnykov3Aristarkhov3n = 6split evenly
S5Tatarnykov0Aristarkhov3n = 3Aristarkhov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTatarnykovAristarkhovT − ABasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.537.7−4.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTatarnykovAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 410 vs 328 / 59952.4%54.8%215 / 410 vs 328 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovTatarnykov 2.25/Aristarkhov 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov—1111881S. Aristarkhov—13311113
LSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov—111831S. Aristarkhov—1191163
WAug 23 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov—11119113S. Aristarkhov—951191
WAug 22 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov—1211113S. Aristarkhov—10860
LJul 26 · 09:30V. Tatarnykov—121161152S. Aristarkhov—145114113
LJul 25 · 17:29V. Tatarnykov—11811862S. Aristarkhov—911911113
LJul 25 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov—9120S. Aristarkhov—111173
LJul 12 · 09:30V. Tatarnykov—11761482S. Aristarkhov—4111112113
LJun 28 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov—11590S. Aristarkhov—1311113
LJun 27 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov—96110S. Aristarkhov—1111133
V. Tatarnykov10
WSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112LSep 6 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov1.5011116762D. Prylepa2.50791111113WSep 6 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.5311118113O. Syksa2.38881151LSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 5 · 17:39D. Kuzmenko3.401399101V. Tatarnykov1.30111111123WSep 5 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov1.50611118113A. Vasylets2.5011671162LSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163LSep 5 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov2.0010960M. Hubenko1.731211113LSep 5 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov1.307111071D. Kuzmenko3.4011412113LAug 23 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov1.331011891O. Ziakun3.2512711113
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
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