TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078999
Played Sep 5Finished
Volodymyr Tatarnykov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911611––––
Maksym Hubenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Tatarnykov above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Maksym Hubenko at 54.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Tatarnykov 15–19 Maksym Hubenko Volodymyr Tatarnykov has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hubenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-19 in 34
Hubenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tatarnykov 1649 vs Hubenko 1677
Hubenko
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tatarnykov 60% vs Hubenko 80%
Hubenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tatarnykov 80% vs Hubenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tatarnykov -2 · Hubenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hubenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTatarnykov 2.00 / Hubenko 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Hubenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13078999
Tatarnykov2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog29% won 21 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Hubenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 240 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it94% 119 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it84% 166 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTatarnykov7wins
AwayHubenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTatarnykov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTatarnykov80%4 of 5
AwayHubenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tatarnykov5Hubenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tatarnykov2Hubenko8n = 10Hubenko took 8 of 10
S3Tatarnykov6Hubenko4n = 10Tatarnykov took 6 of 10
S4Tatarnykov5Hubenko2n = 7Tatarnykov took 5 of 7
S5Tatarnykov4Hubenko0n = 4Tatarnykov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTatarnykovHubenkoT − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.2−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTatarnykovHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 407 vs 541 / 102052.6%53%214 / 407 vs 541 / 1020Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoTatarnykov 2.00/Hubenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hubenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov—2111112113M. Hubenko—111391092
LAug 8 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov—116961M. Hubenko—71111113
WJul 26 · 08:30V. Tatarnykov—31111123M. Hubenko—1197101
WJul 11 · 17:15V. Tatarnykov—1111113M. Hubenko—8680
WJul 11 · 14:30V. Tatarnykov—1210812113M. Hubenko—1012111082
WJun 27 · 17:15V. Tatarnykov—13811113M. Hubenko—1111771
WJun 27 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov—9101111113M. Hubenko—11125892
LJun 21 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov—9840M. Hubenko—1111113
LJun 13 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov—9870M. Hubenko—1111113
WJun 7 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov—116119113M. Hubenko—91151172
V. Tatarnykov10
WSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112LSep 6 · 09:00V. Tatarnykov1.5011116762D. Prylepa2.50791111113LSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.5311118113O. Syksa2.38881151LSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 5 · 17:39D. Kuzmenko3.401399101V. Tatarnykov1.30111111123WSep 5 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov1.50611118113A. Vasylets2.5011671162LSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163LSep 5 · 13:00V. Tatarnykov1.307111071D. Kuzmenko3.4011412113LAug 23 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov1.331011891O. Ziakun3.2512711113
M. Hubenko10
LSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112WSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791WSep 6 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.531211113D. Prylepa2.3810570WSep 6 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.5711911133O. Syksa2.256115111LSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.28138611133D. Kuzmenko3.501111119112WSep 5 · 15:00A. Vasylets2.38651171M. Hubenko1.5311118103LSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442WSep 4 · 10:30O. Syksa2.50611691M. Hubenko1.5011611113
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