TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078968
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111141191214114
Maksym Hubenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 93 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Maksym Hubenko at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 24–28 Maksym Hubenko Serhii Aristarkhov has won 24 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hubenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-28 in 52
Hubenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1593 vs Hubenko 1721
Hubenko
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Hubenko 100%
Hubenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Hubenko 80%
Hubenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov -2 · Hubenko +5
Hubenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hubenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.83 / Hubenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hubenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13078968
Aristarkhov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Hubenko1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov4wins
AwayHubenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov40%2 of 5
AwayHubenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov5Hubenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Aristarkhov6Hubenko4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S3Aristarkhov4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S4Aristarkhov3Hubenko5n = 8Hubenko took 5 of 8
S5Aristarkhov1Hubenko2n = 3Hubenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovHubenkoA − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.840.6−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 595 vs 541 / 102054.1%53%322 / 595 vs 541 / 1020Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoAristarkhov 1.83/Hubenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov—341351M. Hubenko—111111113
LAug 7 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov—15111051M. Hubenko—17612113
LJul 26 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov—1112811112M. Hubenko—514117133
LJul 19 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov—2690M. Hubenko—1111113
WJul 17 · 05:00S. Aristarkhov—11114133M. Hubenko—7411111
WJul 5 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov—1011124133M. Hubenko—1261011112
LJul 4 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov—1115571M. Hubenko—71711113
LJun 27 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov—111110972M. Hubenko—761211113
WJun 26 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov—1111133M. Hubenko—87110
WJun 21 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov—91111113M. Hubenko—117761
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
M. Hubenko10
LSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112WSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791WSep 6 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.531211113D. Prylepa2.3810570WSep 6 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.5711911133O. Syksa2.256115111LSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.28138611133D. Kuzmenko3.501111119112WSep 5 · 15:00A. Vasylets2.38651171M. Hubenko1.5311118103WSep 5 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov2.0010960M. Hubenko1.731211113WSep 4 · 10:30O. Syksa2.50611691M. Hubenko1.5011611113
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