TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079381
Played Sep 5Finished
Andrii Vasylets
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411111411711––
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Vasylets above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 60 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 60.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Vasylets 29–66 Serhii Aristarkhov Andrii Vasylets has won 29 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-66 in 95
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 37 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasylets 1679 vs Aristarkhov 1634
Vasylets
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasylets 40% vs Aristarkhov 60%
Aristarkhov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasylets 70% vs Aristarkhov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasylets -1 · Aristarkhov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Aristarkhov)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasylets 2.50 / Aristarkhov 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Aristarkhov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13079381
Vasylets2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 55 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Aristarkhov1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 111 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it83% 79 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVasylets5wins
AwayAristarkhov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVasylets60%3 of 5
AwayAristarkhov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasylets5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S2Vasylets3Aristarkhov7n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S3Vasylets5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S4Vasylets5Aristarkhov3n = 8Vasylets took 5 of 8
S5Vasylets2Aristarkhov1n = 3Vasylets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVasyletsAristarkhovV − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.439.8−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasyletsAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 523 vs 323 / 59245.1%54.6%236 / 523 vs 323 / 592Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovVasylets 2.50/Aristarkhov 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets—1111113S. Aristarkhov—7690
WAug 30 · 16:30A. Vasylets—6101111113S. Aristarkhov—11129652
WAug 22 · 16:58A. Vasylets—8111112133S. Aristarkhov—1113810112
WAug 22 · 12:30A. Vasylets—11711113S. Aristarkhov—511741
LAug 16 · 16:59A. Vasylets—118991S. Aristarkhov—71111113
LAug 16 · 13:00A. Vasylets—36110S. Aristarkhov—1111133
WJul 25 · 15:00A. Vasylets—111116113S. Aristarkhov—471881
LJul 4 · 17:39A. Vasylets—871471S. Aristarkhov—111112113
LJul 4 · 15:00A. Vasylets—1410741S. Aristarkhov—121211113
LJun 27 · 13:30A. Vasylets—91121172S. Aristarkhov—118119113
A. Vasylets10
LSep 5 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov1.50611118113A. Vasylets2.5011671162LSep 5 · 15:00A. Vasylets2.38651171M. Hubenko1.5311118103LSep 5 · 12:00A. Vasylets1.5011610101D. Kuzmenko2.5081112123WSep 2 · 11:30A. Vasylets2.0011119113O. Syksa1.73761191LSep 2 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.501211123A. Vasylets2.50108100WSep 2 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.50691151A. Vasylets1.5011115113LSep 2 · 06:30A. Vasylets1.44114127102D. Kuzmenko2.639111011123WSep 2 · 05:30O. Kurylenko3.75951151A. Vasylets1.2511117113WAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690WAug 30 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov1.4411129652A. Vasylets2.636101111113
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690LAug 30 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov1.4411129652A. Vasylets2.636101111113
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