TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044042
Played Aug 30Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161210911611511
Andrii Vasylets
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Andrii Vasylets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 63.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 66–29 Andrii Vasylets Andrii Vasylets has won 29 of their 95 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:55What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Aristarkhov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-29 in 95
Aristarkhov
Wrong
gap of 37 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1593 vs Vasylets 1707
Vasylets
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Vasylets 100%
Vasylets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Vasylets 90%
Vasylets
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +3 · Vasylets +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasylets form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.44 / Vasylets 2.63
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Aristarkhov)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13044042
Aristarkhov1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 113 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 96
Vasylets2.63
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 52 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov5wins
AwayVasylets5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov60%3 of 5
AwayVasylets60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov5Vasylets5n = 10split evenly
S2Aristarkhov7Vasylets3n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S3Aristarkhov5Vasylets5n = 10split evenly
S4Aristarkhov3Vasylets5n = 8Vasylets took 5 of 8
S5Aristarkhov1Vasylets2n = 3Vasylets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovVasyletsA − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.4+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovVasyletsBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 600 vs 237 / 52254.2%45.4%325 / 600 vs 237 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.44/Vasylets 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vasylets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 17:43S. Aristarkhov—7690A. Vasylets—1111113
LAug 30 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov—11129652A. Vasylets—6101111113
LAug 22 · 16:58S. Aristarkhov—1113810112A. Vasylets—8111112133
LAug 22 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov—511741A. Vasylets—11711113
WAug 16 · 16:59S. Aristarkhov—71111113A. Vasylets—118991
WAug 16 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov—1111133A. Vasylets—36110
LJul 25 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov—471881A. Vasylets—111116113
WJul 4 · 17:39S. Aristarkhov—111112113A. Vasylets—871471
WJul 4 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov—121211113A. Vasylets—1410741
WJun 27 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov—118119113A. Vasylets—91121172
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442
A. Vasylets10
LSep 5 · 16:30V. Tatarnykov1.50611118113A. Vasylets2.5011671162LSep 5 · 15:00A. Vasylets2.38651171M. Hubenko1.5311118103LSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113LSep 5 · 12:00A. Vasylets1.5011610101D. Kuzmenko2.5081112123WSep 2 · 11:30A. Vasylets2.0011119113O. Syksa1.73761191LSep 2 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.501211123A. Vasylets2.50108100WSep 2 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.50691151A. Vasylets1.5011115113LSep 2 · 06:30A. Vasylets1.44114127102D. Kuzmenko2.639111011123WSep 2 · 05:30O. Kurylenko3.75951151A. Vasylets1.2511117113WAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
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