TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084455
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71115131210119––
Oleksandr Lyman
Away
5.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 88 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 86.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 36–5 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 5 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-5 in 41
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 31 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1700 vs Lyman 1395
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 306 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 100% vs Lyman 40%
Aristarkhov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Lyman 40%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +5 · Lyman +2
Aristarkhov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Aristarkhov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.14 / Lyman 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+5.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084455
Aristarkhov1.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 118 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Lyman5.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 58 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back15% 19 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov9wins
AwayLyman1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov100%7 of 7
AwayLyman33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov7Lyman3n = 10Aristarkhov took 7 of 10
S2Aristarkhov8Lyman2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S3Aristarkhov8Lyman2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S4Aristarkhov3Lyman2n = 5Aristarkhov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovLymanA − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.829.3+10.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 599 vs 272 / 60954.8%44.7%328 / 599 vs 272 / 609Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.14/Lyman 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov—71512113O. Lyman—11131091
WAug 22 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov—1111113O. Lyman—5770
WJun 20 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov—1111113O. Lyman—6460
WJun 6 · 17:03S. Aristarkhov—1111113O. Lyman—7990
LJun 6 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov—9915111O. Lyman—111113133
WMay 30 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov—1111113O. Lyman—3620
WMay 23 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov—13119113O. Lyman—1161141
WMay 16 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov—1111113O. Lyman—6750
WMay 9 · 17:10S. Aristarkhov—119411113O. Lyman—91111742
WMay 9 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov—9111112113O. Lyman—11731442
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
O. Lyman10
LSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881LSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa1.2011136113O. Lyman4.338111141LSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791WSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:00D. Prylepa1.3611611113O. Lyman3.00711651LSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa1.251111113O. Lyman3.757780LSep 4 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.256121011113O. Lyman3.75111012892LSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman3.258560D. Kuzmenko1.331111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.