TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084051
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Aristarkhov
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11391171111347
Oleksandr Syksa
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Oleksandr Syksa below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 4-7
Point 77 set 5, 4-7 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 54.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 21–15 Oleksandr Syksa Oleksandr Syksa has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Aristarkhov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Aristarkhov
Wrong
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1740 vs Syksa 1557
Aristarkhov
Wrong
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Syksa 40%
Aristarkhov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 80% vs Syksa 40%
Aristarkhov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov -1 · Syksa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.61 / Syksa 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084051
Aristarkhov1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 97
Syksa2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog26% won 55 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back13% 19 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov5wins
AwaySyksa5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov80%4 of 5
AwaySyksa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov5Syksa5n = 10split evenly
S2Aristarkhov5Syksa5n = 10split evenly
S3Aristarkhov5Syksa5n = 10split evenly
S4Aristarkhov3Syksa4n = 7Syksa took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovSyksaA − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.0+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovSyksaBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 600 vs 574 / 110155%52.1%330 / 600 vs 574 / 1101Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.61/Syksa 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Syksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov—111211113O. Syksa—814871
LAug 3 · 10:30S. Aristarkhov—61111672O. Syksa—118911113
LJul 26 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov—91090O. Syksa—1112113
WJul 19 · 06:00S. Aristarkhov—1111113O. Syksa—5790
WJul 17 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov—81111113O. Syksa—116991
WJul 5 · 07:30S. Aristarkhov—111198113O. Syksa—35111192
LJun 28 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov—1271171O. Syksa—14116113
LJun 14 · 10:00S. Aristarkhov—7680O. Syksa—1111113
WJun 7 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov—11146113O. Syksa—9121171
LMay 31 · 17:04S. Aristarkhov—119971O. Syksa—71111113
S. Aristarkhov10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041WSep 5 · 13:30A. Vasylets2.50411471S. Aristarkhov1.5011111113WSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442LAug 30 · 17:43A. Vasylets2.631111113S. Aristarkhov1.447690
O. Syksa10
WSep 7 · 05:00O. Syksa1.611110911113S. Maliuk2.2051211972WSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa1.2011136113O. Lyman4.338111141WSep 6 · 08:00D. Prylepa2.50111301162O. Syksa1.50215116113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.5311118113O. Syksa2.38881151LSep 6 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.5711911133O. Syksa2.256115111LSep 4 · 10:30O. Syksa2.50611691M. Hubenko1.5011611113WSep 4 · 09:00O. Syksa1.4411117123D. Prylepa2.638911101LSep 4 · 07:30O. Syksa1.6741181182O. Kurylenko2.10116118113WSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa1.251111113O. Lyman3.757780LSep 4 · 04:30O. Syksa1.57117121162S. Maliuk2.25811149113
Upcoming Matches
S. Aristarkhov
Nothing scheduled
O. Syksa
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.