TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072882
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksym Hubenko
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61112101012118119
Oleksandr Lyman
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Hubenko above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maksym Hubenko at 78.6%
100 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Hubenko 17–3 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 3 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Hubenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-3 in 20
Hubenko
Correct
gap of 14 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hubenko 1694 vs Lyman 1383
Hubenko
Correct
both rated, 311 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hubenko 60% vs Lyman 40%
Hubenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hubenko 80% vs Lyman 40%
Hubenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hubenko +2 · Lyman -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Hubenko) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHubenko 1.25 / Lyman 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Hubenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13072882
Hubenko1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 235 of 320
Up 2–0, closes it94% 118 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it84% 163 of 195
Lyman3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 56 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHubenko8wins
AwayLyman2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHubenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayLymann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hubenko8Lyman2n = 10Hubenko took 8 of 10
S2Hubenko7Lyman3n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S3Hubenko4Lyman6n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S4Hubenko5Lyman3n = 8Hubenko took 5 of 8
S5Hubenko3Lyman1n = 4Hubenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHubenkoLymanH − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.6+3.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHubenkoLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime537 / 1016 vs 273 / 60552.9%45.1%537 / 1016 vs 273 / 605Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoHubenko 1.25/Lyman 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hubenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 05:00M. Hubenko—6121011113O. Lyman—111012892
WAug 26 · 10:00M. Hubenko—111113113O. Lyman—681571
WAug 25 · 10:30M. Hubenko—1111113O. Lyman—6990
LAug 20 · 06:00M. Hubenko—95111162O. Lyman—111172113
WAug 19 · 05:00M. Hubenko—11119123O. Lyman—7711101
WJun 11 · 06:00M. Hubenko—1111113O. Lyman—8590
WJun 4 · 11:00M. Hubenko—11116123O. Lyman—5911101
LMay 27 · 07:30M. Hubenko—1191181O. Lyman—91113113
WMay 23 · 16:00M. Hubenko—1311712143O. Lyman—1171114122
WMay 19 · 05:00M. Hubenko—113125113O. Lyman—611101152
M. Hubenko10
LSep 6 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov2.00812114133M. Hubenko1.731110911112WSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791WSep 6 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.531211113D. Prylepa2.3810570WSep 6 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.5711911133O. Syksa2.256115111LSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 16:00M. Hubenko1.28138611133D. Kuzmenko3.501111119112WSep 5 · 15:00A. Vasylets2.38651171M. Hubenko1.5311118103WSep 5 · 14:00V. Tatarnykov2.0010960M. Hubenko1.731211113LSep 5 · 12:30S. Aristarkhov1.836111112113M. Hubenko1.8311491442
O. Lyman10
LSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881LSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa1.2011136113O. Lyman4.338111141LSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791LSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:00D. Prylepa1.3611611113O. Lyman3.00711651LSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa1.251111113O. Lyman3.757780LSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman3.258560D. Kuzmenko1.331111113
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