TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094480
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Maliuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171210––––
Oleksandr Lyman
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maliuk to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Maliuk above · Oleksandr Lyman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Maliuk at 64.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maliuk 41–25 Oleksandr Lyman Oleksandr Lyman has won 25 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-25 in 66
Maliuk
Correct
gap of 16 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maliuk 1507 vs Lyman 1400
Maliuk
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maliuk 60% vs Lyman 20%
Maliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maliuk 50% vs Lyman 30%
Maliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maliuk +2 · Lyman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Maliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaliuk 1.61 / Lyman 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Maliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094480
Maliuk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 64 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 47 of 62
Lyman2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 56 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaliuk8wins
AwayLyman2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMaliuk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaliuk88.9%8 of 9
AwayLymann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maliuk9Lyman1n = 10Maliuk took 9 of 10
S2Maliuk8Lyman2n = 10Maliuk took 8 of 10
S3Maliuk6Lyman4n = 10Maliuk took 6 of 10
S4Maliuk2Lyman2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaliukLymanM − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.629.5+8.1per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaliukLymanBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 489 vs 273 / 61149.7%44.7%243 / 489 vs 273 / 611Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaliukMaliuk 1.61/Lyman 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Maliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:30S. Maliuk—1111123O. Lyman—87100
WSep 4 · 10:00S. Maliuk—1112113O. Lyman—51080
LSep 3 · 07:00S. Maliuk—1110671O. Lyman—61211113
WSep 1 · 10:30S. Maliuk—1111113O. Lyman—7750
LAug 27 · 10:30S. Maliuk—911981O. Lyman—11711113
WAug 26 · 08:30S. Maliuk—1111143O. Lyman—57120
WAug 25 · 06:00S. Maliuk—119811113O. Lyman—61111772
WAug 20 · 09:00S. Maliuk—121112113O. Lyman—1071471
WAug 19 · 10:00S. Maliuk—1117113O. Lyman—41590
WJun 11 · 04:30S. Maliuk—1111113O. Lyman—2950
S. Maliuk10
WSep 8 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.7311114792S. Maliuk2.00751111113WSep 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.409620S. Maliuk2.751111113LSep 7 · 10:00S. Maliuk5.507480S. Chuhai1.131111113LSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.831111113S. Maliuk1.839440WSep 7 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.61115551S. Maliuk2.2091111113LSep 7 · 05:00O. Syksa1.611110911113S. Maliuk2.2051211972WSep 4 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.5767111192S. Maliuk2.25111168113WSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.531111113S. Maliuk2.388690LSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.7351111113S. Maliuk2.00117781
O. Lyman10
WSep 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.611181071O. Lyman2.2061112113LSep 6 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.3381111113O. Lyman3.25117881LSep 6 · 10:00O. Syksa1.2011136113O. Lyman4.338111141LSep 6 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.3011311113O. Lyman3.40411791LSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 04:30V. Tatarnykov1.14681111O. Lyman5.0011114113WSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:00D. Prylepa1.3611611113O. Lyman3.00711651LSep 4 · 06:00O. Syksa1.251111113O. Lyman3.757780
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