TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093990
Played Sep 8Finished
Oleh Kurylenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117115411711911
Serhii Maliuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:06 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Kurylenko above · Serhii Maliuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 87 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kurylenko 52–40 Serhii Maliuk Serhii Maliuk has won 40 of their 92 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Maliuk beat Kurylenko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurylenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-40 in 92
Kurylenko
Wrong
gap of 12 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurylenko 1495 vs Maliuk 1485
Kurylenko
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurylenko 40% vs Maliuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurylenko 50% vs Maliuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurylenko -1 · Maliuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurylenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurylenko 1.73 / Maliuk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurylenko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13093990
Kurylenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 160 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it92% 75 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it82% 112 of 137
Maliuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 90 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurylenko5wins
AwayMaliuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurylenko60%3 of 5
AwayMaliuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurylenko5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurylenko5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurylenko4Maliuk6n = 10Maliuk took 6 of 10
S4Kurylenko1Maliuk4n = 5Maliuk took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurylenkoMaliukK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.034.7−1.7per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurylenkoMaliukBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 993 vs 241 / 48749.8%49.5%494 / 993 vs 241 / 487Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoKurylenko 1.73/Maliuk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko—9620S. Maliuk—1111113
WSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko—51111113S. Maliuk—117781
WSep 3 · 09:30O. Kurylenko—1111113S. Maliuk—8780
LAug 27 · 07:00O. Kurylenko—11118111S. Maliuk—91311133
WAug 25 · 08:00O. Kurylenko—111187113S. Maliuk—97111152
WAug 19 · 06:30O. Kurylenko—612118113S. Maliuk—111031192
LAug 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko—118651S. Maliuk—41111113
WAug 13 · 06:30O. Kurylenko—1111113S. Maliuk—9740
LAug 5 · 08:00O. Kurylenko—4680S. Maliuk—1111113
LAug 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko—61170S. Maliuk—1113113
O. Kurylenko10
LSep 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.409620S. Maliuk2.751111113WSep 7 · 09:30O. Syksa1.617711101O. Kurylenko2.2011117123LSep 7 · 07:30D. Prylepa1.619111011113O. Kurylenko2.2011412842LSep 7 · 06:30O. Kurylenko4.335580S. Chuhai1.201111113WSep 7 · 05:30D. Kuzmenko2.005670O. Kurylenko1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.534860O. Lyman2.381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.361211118123O. Kurylenko3.00144511102WSep 4 · 07:30O. Syksa1.6741181182O. Kurylenko2.10116118113WSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.7351111113S. Maliuk2.00117781WSep 4 · 05:30D. Prylepa1.61311951O. Kurylenko2.2011911113
S. Maliuk10
WSep 8 · 06:30S. Maliuk1.611111123O. Lyman2.2087100WSep 7 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.409620S. Maliuk2.751111113LSep 7 · 10:00S. Maliuk5.507480S. Chuhai1.131111113LSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko1.831111113S. Maliuk1.839440WSep 7 · 06:00D. Prylepa1.61115551S. Maliuk2.2091111113LSep 7 · 05:00O. Syksa1.611110911113S. Maliuk2.2051211972WSep 4 · 11:00D. Prylepa1.5767111192S. Maliuk2.25111168113WSep 4 · 10:00O. Lyman2.3851080S. Maliuk1.531112113LSep 4 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.531111113S. Maliuk2.388690LSep 4 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.7351111113S. Maliuk2.00117781
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