TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122082
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Syksa
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118211119––
Serhii Aristarkhov
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Syksa above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 54.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Syksa 15–21 Serhii Aristarkhov Oleksandr Syksa has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Aristarkhov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-21 in 36
Aristarkhov
Wrong
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Syksa 1630 vs Aristarkhov 1678
Aristarkhov
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Syksa 60% vs Aristarkhov 40%
Syksa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Syksa 60% vs Aristarkhov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Syksa +1 · Aristarkhov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Aristarkhov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSyksa 2.00 / Aristarkhov 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122082
Syksa2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 55 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back14% 20 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 102
Aristarkhov1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 104 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 76 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSyksa5wins
AwayAristarkhov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSyksa80%4 of 5
AwayAristarkhov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Syksa5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S2Syksa5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S3Syksa5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S4Syksa4Aristarkhov3n = 7Syksa took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSyksaAristarkhovS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.037.4−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSyksaAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime577 / 1100 vs 327 / 59852.5%54.7%577 / 1100 vs 327 / 598Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovSyksa 2.00/Aristarkhov 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Syksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 06:30O. Syksa37814871S. Aristarkhov45111211113
WAug 3 · 10:30O. Syksa50118911113S. Aristarkhov4161111672
WJul 26 · 11:30O. Syksa341112113S. Aristarkhov2891090
LJul 19 · 06:00O. Syksa215790S. Aristarkhov331111113
LJul 17 · 09:30O. Syksa35116991S. Aristarkhov4181111113
LJul 5 · 07:30O. Syksa3935111192S. Aristarkhov50111198113
WJun 28 · 08:00O. Syksa4214116113S. Aristarkhov371271171
WJun 14 · 10:00O. Syksa331111113S. Aristarkhov217680
LJun 7 · 08:00O. Syksa399121171S. Aristarkhov4211146113
WMay 31 · 17:04O. Syksa4071111113S. Aristarkhov36119971
O. Syksa10
LSep 13 · 15:30A. Vasylets1.911111811113O. Syksa1.8061311332WSep 13 · 13:30D. Prylepa2.63861151O. Syksa1.4411117113LSep 13 · 12:30O. Syksa2.63137413102M. Hubenko1.4411111111113LSep 11 · 11:00D. Kuzmenko2.1091111133O. Syksa1.671159111WSep 11 · 10:00O. Lyman4.501196101O. Syksa1.1771111123WSep 11 · 08:30S. Maliuk2.101281111102O. Syksa1.671011713123LSep 11 · 06:30O. Kurylenko2.001381113163O. Syksa1.731111315142LSep 11 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.2011117113O. Syksa1.61851191WSep 10 · 10:30S. Miroshnychenko3.401146101O. Syksa1.3061111123WSep 10 · 09:30O. Syksa1.201111113O. Lyman4.339680
S. Aristarkhov10
WSep 13 · 13:00A. Vasylets2.50771181S. Aristarkhov1.5011115103LSep 13 · 12:00D. Prylepa2.631111123S. Aristarkhov1.4477100LSep 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov1.6111971142O. Syksa2.2031111373LSep 6 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.831113113S. Aristarkhov1.8361160WSep 6 · 07:30V. Tatarnykov2.251111881S. Aristarkhov1.5713311113WSep 6 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.1471512113O. Lyman5.0011131091WSep 6 · 05:30D. Prylepa2.6331141172S. Aristarkhov1.44118117113WSep 5 · 17:10M. Hubenko1.83121160S. Aristarkhov1.831413113WSep 5 · 15:30V. Tatarnykov2.38111831S. Aristarkhov1.531191163WSep 5 · 14:30S. Aristarkhov1.337111283D. Kuzmenko3.251141041
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