TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111320
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksym Hubenko
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311211211––––
Ruslan Ivanov
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Hubenko above · Ruslan Ivanov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 40 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 70.7%
40 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Hubenko 2–5 Ruslan Ivanov Maksym Hubenko has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Ivanov
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hubenko 1668 vs Ivanov 1887
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 219 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hubenko 20% vs Ivanov 80%
Ivanov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hubenko 40% vs Ivanov 80%
Ivanov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hubenko -3 · Ivanov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Ivanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHubenko 2.75 / Ivanov 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Ivanov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111320
Hubenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 48 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 63
Ivanov1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 46 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHubenko2wins
AwayIvanov5wins
3 of 7 to a deciderIvanov leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHubenko40%2 of 5
AwayIvanovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hubenko5Ivanov2n = 7Hubenko took 5 of 7
S2Hubenko3Ivanov4n = 7Ivanov took 4 of 7
S3Hubenko3Ivanov4n = 7Ivanov took 4 of 7
S4Hubenko0Ivanov5n = 5Ivanov took 5 of 5
S5Hubenko1Ivanov2n = 3Ivanov took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricHubenkoIvanovH − IBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match40.341.0−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHubenkoIvanovBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1038 vs 68 / 10153.1%67.3%551 / 1038 vs 68 / 101Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovHubenko 2.75/Ivanov 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 10 · 16:00M. Hubenko—115981R. Ivanov—31111113
WAug 7 · 10:30M. Hubenko—1351113113R. Ivanov—111161532
LJul 31 · 06:00M. Hubenko—41111101R. Ivanov—11133123
LJul 30 · 14:30M. Hubenko—1511161192R. Ivanov—1371813113
LJul 24 · 04:30M. Hubenko—2780R. Ivanov—1111113
LJul 10 · 10:00M. Hubenko—11117982R. Ivanov—861111113
WJul 9 · 16:00M. Hubenko—1111133R. Ivanov—76110
M. Hubenko10
LSep 11 · 15:30M. Hubenko4.00811691I. Fedoryshyn1.2211911113LSep 11 · 14:00M. Hubenko3.2591280A. Kasyanov1.331114113LSep 11 · 13:00M. Hubenko2.755790S. Chuhai1.401111113WSep 10 · 17:29M. Hubenko2.1513163143A. Lushchyk1.62111411121LSep 10 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.5331111113M. Hubenko2.38115981LSep 10 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.22121192113M. Hubenko4.00105111192WSep 10 · 13:00A. Lushchyk1.5384111132M. Hubenko2.38111189113WSep 10 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.3396100M. Hubenko3.251111123WSep 9 · 10:30D. Kuzmenko3.4011146101M. Hubenko1.30131211123LSep 9 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.5312117882A. Vasylets2.381081111113
R. Ivanov10
WSep 11 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.8021211113A. Kasyanov1.911110411WSep 11 · 13:30R. Ivanov2.1011911163I. Fedoryshyn1.678118141WSep 11 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.28111547113S. Chuhai3.50713111162LSep 10 · 17:00R. Ivanov2.107860I. Fedoryshyn1.671111113WSep 10 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.5331111113M. Hubenko2.38115981WSep 10 · 15:00A. Kasyanov1.73412371R. Ivanov2.00111011113WSep 10 · 14:00A. Lushchyk3.504780R. Ivanov1.281111113WSep 10 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.6711118892R. Ivanov2.10481111113WAug 28 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6114571162R. Ivanov2.201211116113LAug 28 · 16:30A. Kasyanov2.001111113R. Ivanov1.736590
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