TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111671
Played Sep 11Finished
Ruslan Ivanov
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
2111210114111––
Artem Kasyanov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Ivanov above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 62 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Ivanov 6–6 Artem Kasyanov Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanov 1876 vs Kasyanov 1858
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanov 80% vs Kasyanov 40%
Ivanov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanov 70% vs Kasyanov 50%
Ivanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanov +2 · Kasyanov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivanov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasyanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanov 1.80 / Kasyanov 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ivanov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111671
Ivanov1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 46 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Kasyanov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 30 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanov5wins
AwayKasyanov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanov50%2 of 4
AwayKasyanov50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanov4Kasyanov6n = 10Kasyanov took 6 of 10
S2Ivanov4Kasyanov6n = 10Kasyanov took 6 of 10
S3Ivanov6Kasyanov4n = 10Ivanov took 6 of 10
S4Ivanov4Kasyanov3n = 7Ivanov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanovKasyanovI − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.637.0−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanovKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 100 vs 402 / 70567%57%67 / 100 vs 402 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovIvanov 1.80/Kasyanov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 15:00R. Ivanov—111011113A. Kasyanov—412371
LAug 28 · 16:30R. Ivanov—6590A. Kasyanov—1111113
LAug 28 · 13:00R. Ivanov—123971A. Kasyanov—101111113
WAug 27 · 12:00R. Ivanov—1711113A. Kasyanov—15830
LAug 21 · 14:30R. Ivanov—71050A. Kasyanov—1112113
LAug 20 · 12:00R. Ivanov—11211762A. Kasyanov—611811113
WAug 14 · 14:30R. Ivanov—6121111123A. Kasyanov—1110139102
LAug 13 · 16:00R. Ivanov—1131181A. Kasyanov—13119113
WAug 7 · 07:30R. Ivanov—81111113A. Kasyanov—118961
WJul 31 · 07:30R. Ivanov—51111113A. Kasyanov—116851
R. Ivanov10
WSep 11 · 13:30R. Ivanov2.1011911163I. Fedoryshyn1.678118141WSep 11 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.28111547113S. Chuhai3.50713111162LSep 10 · 17:00R. Ivanov2.107860I. Fedoryshyn1.671111113WSep 10 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.5331111113M. Hubenko2.38115981WSep 10 · 15:00A. Kasyanov1.73412371R. Ivanov2.00111011113WSep 10 · 14:00A. Lushchyk3.504780R. Ivanov1.281111113WSep 10 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.6711118892R. Ivanov2.10481111113WAug 28 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6114571162R. Ivanov2.201211116113LAug 28 · 16:30A. Kasyanov2.001111113R. Ivanov1.736590LAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152
A. Kasyanov10
WSep 11 · 14:00M. Hubenko3.2591280A. Kasyanov1.331114113WSep 11 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.5769130A. Kasyanov2.251111153LSep 10 · 16:30A. Lushchyk2.6311611113A. Kasyanov1.44811861LSep 10 · 15:00A. Kasyanov1.73412371R. Ivanov2.00111011113LSep 10 · 13:30A. Kasyanov2.0098100I. Fedoryshyn1.731111123LSep 10 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.3396100M. Hubenko3.251111123WSep 8 · 17:34A. Kasyanov3.25148811113M. Baday1.33121111262WSep 8 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.539490A. Kasyanov2.381111113WSep 8 · 14:30A. Lushchyk2.63117991A. Kasyanov1.4491111113WAug 28 · 16:30A. Kasyanov2.001111113R. Ivanov1.736590
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