TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031292
Played Aug 28Finished
Maksym Baday
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11691110121311115
Ruslan Ivanov
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:27 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Ruslan Ivanov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 99 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 54.6%
99 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 5–10 Ruslan Ivanov Maksym Baday has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ivanov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Ivanov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1926 vs Ivanov 1826
Baday
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 40% vs Ivanov 20%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 50% vs Ivanov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +1 · Ivanov -3
Ivanov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ivanov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 2.25 / Ivanov 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Ivanov)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13031292
Baday2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Ivanov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 44 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday4wins
AwayIvanov6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday42.9%3 of 7
AwayIvanov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday7Ivanov3n = 10Baday took 7 of 10
S2Baday4Ivanov6n = 10Ivanov took 6 of 10
S3Baday3Ivanov7n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S4Baday4Ivanov4n = 8split evenly
S5Baday2Ivanov3n = 5Ivanov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayIvanovB − IBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.241.1+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayIvanovBasisWin rate · lifetime562 / 745 vs 61 / 9375.4%65.6%562 / 745 vs 61 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.62.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovBaday 2.25/Ivanov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday—1191013113R. Ivanov—611121152
WAug 28 · 14:00M. Baday—1311113R. Ivanov—11840
LAug 27 · 13:00M. Baday—11961282R. Ivanov—2111110113
LAug 21 · 13:00M. Baday—115881R. Ivanov—81111113
WAug 20 · 13:00M. Baday—11811113R. Ivanov—711821
LAug 14 · 13:00M. Baday—9490R. Ivanov—1111113
LAug 13 · 14:00M. Baday—11126872R. Ivanov—5101111113
LAug 6 · 17:45M. Baday—81181182R. Ivanov—117119113
LAug 6 · 15:30M. Baday—11714101R. Ivanov—81116123
WJul 30 · 17:29M. Baday—513117143R. Ivanov—1111711122
M. Baday10
LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123WAug 28 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn2.101110871M. Baday1.6791211113WAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov1.6711840M. Baday2.101311113
R. Ivanov10
WAug 28 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6114571162R. Ivanov2.201211116113LAug 28 · 16:30A. Kasyanov2.001111113R. Ivanov1.736590LAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov1.6711840M. Baday2.101311113LAug 28 · 13:00R. Ivanov1.61123971A. Kasyanov2.20101111113LAug 28 · 12:00R. Ivanov2.10891191I. Fedoryshyn1.6711113113WAug 27 · 17:09R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.406680LAug 27 · 16:00A. Lushchyk3.75411811153R. Ivanov1.25115116132LAug 27 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.801111113R. Ivanov1.918940WAug 27 · 13:00M. Baday1.9111961282R. Ivanov1.802111110113WAug 27 · 12:00A. Kasyanov2.0015830R. Ivanov1.731711113
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