TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055304
Played Sep 1Finished
Maksym Baday
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118511411––
Artem Kasyanov
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 73.6% is still 73.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
73.6%
73.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 67 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Maksym Baday at 73.6%
67 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 118–24 Artem Kasyanov Artem Kasyanov has won 24 of their 142 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Baday
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
118-24 in 142
Baday
Wrong
gap of 94 in 142, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1926 vs Kasyanov 1915
Baday
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 80% vs Kasyanov 60%
Baday
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 60% vs Kasyanov 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +4 · Kasyanov +1
Baday
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Baday)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasyanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.30 / Kasyanov 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Baday)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13055304
Baday1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite75% won 248 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it96% 132 of 137
Up 1–0, closes it86% 181 of 211
Kasyanov3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 27 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday6wins
AwayKasyanov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday100%4 of 4
AwayKasyanov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday4Kasyanov6n = 10Kasyanov took 6 of 10
S2Baday5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Baday5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S4Baday4Kasyanov3n = 7Baday took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayKasyanovB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.735.5+2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 740 vs 406 / 70775.4%57.4%558 / 740 vs 406 / 707Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.30/Kasyanov 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.6%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasyanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 12:30M. Baday—99100A. Kasyanov—1111123
LAug 27 · 17:39M. Baday—14740A. Kasyanov—1611113
WAug 27 · 16:30M. Baday—791114113A. Kasyanov—111181262
WAug 21 · 17:49M. Baday—11811113A. Kasyanov—611431
WAug 21 · 15:30M. Baday—1191111113A. Kasyanov—91131352
WAug 20 · 16:30M. Baday—1111113A. Kasyanov—9970
LAug 18 · 16:30M. Baday—1211441A. Kasyanov—14711113
WAug 14 · 17:29M. Baday—91111113A. Kasyanov—114491
WAug 14 · 15:30M. Baday—11117123A. Kasyanov—8611101
LAug 13 · 13:00M. Baday—611771A. Kasyanov—11611113
M. Baday10
LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123WAug 28 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn2.101110871M. Baday1.6791211113WAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152WAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov1.6711840M. Baday2.101311113
A. Kasyanov10
WSep 8 · 14:30A. Lushchyk2.63117991A. Kasyanov1.4491111113LSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 8 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.20691181A. Kasyanov1.6111117113LSep 4 · 17:00A. Kasyanov1.678930S. Chuhai2.101111113WSep 4 · 16:00A. Kasyanov1.441111113A. Lushchyk2.638760WSep 4 · 15:30A. Kasyanov2.251113113I. Fedoryshyn1.5771190LSep 4 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.571111911113A. Kasyanov2.2513711782WSep 4 · 13:30A. Lushchyk2.634911101A. Kasyanov1.4411114123WSep 4 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.201117141A. Kasyanov1.6191111163LAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123
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