TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031597
Played Aug 28Finished
Ivan Fedoryshyn
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012811711––
Maksym Baday
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fedoryshyn above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Baday at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fedoryshyn 108–124 Maksym Baday Ivan Fedoryshyn has won 108 of their 232 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
108-124 in 232
Baday
Correct
gap of 16 in 232, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fedoryshyn 1847 vs Baday 1904
Baday
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fedoryshyn 60% vs Baday 40%
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fedoryshyn 40% vs Baday 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fedoryshyn -1 · Baday +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Baday) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baday form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFedoryshyn 2.10 / Baday 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Baday)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13031597
Fedoryshyn2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 36 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Baday1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 250 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it96% 135 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it86% 184 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFedoryshyn6wins
AwayBaday4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFedoryshyn leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFedoryshyn100%3 of 3
AwayBaday57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fedoryshyn3Baday7n = 10Baday took 7 of 10
S2Fedoryshyn5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S3Fedoryshyn5Baday5n = 10split evenly
S4Fedoryshyn5Baday2n = 7Fedoryshyn took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFedoryshynBadayF − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.2+0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFedoryshynBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime566 / 843 vs 560 / 74367.1%75.4%566 / 843 vs 560 / 743Avg sets wonper match2.32.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayFedoryshyn 2.10/Baday 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 15:30I. Fedoryshyn—131011113M. Baday—1112591
WAug 18 · 15:30I. Fedoryshyn—811813153M. Baday—1141111132
WAug 14 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn—1081211113M. Baday—121110992
WAug 13 · 15:30I. Fedoryshyn—11117113M. Baday—691181
LAug 11 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn—11880M. Baday—1311113
LAug 6 · 14:00I. Fedoryshyn—891171M. Baday—11117113
WAug 4 · 17:28I. Fedoryshyn—1111113M. Baday—7460
WAug 4 · 15:30I. Fedoryshyn—91111123M. Baday—1169101
LAug 2 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn—6850M. Baday—1111113
LAug 2 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn—711861M. Baday—11611113
I. Fedoryshyn10
LSep 8 · 15:00S. Chuhai2.5014116113I. Fedoryshyn1.501211151WSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 12:30A. Lushchyk2.6310440I. Fedoryshyn1.441211113WSep 4 · 17:30I. Fedoryshyn1.331111113A. Lushchyk3.255470WSep 4 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.44117119113S. Chuhai2.6371171162LSep 4 · 15:30A. Kasyanov2.251113113I. Fedoryshyn1.5771190WSep 4 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.571111911113A. Kasyanov2.2513711782WSep 4 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.50491171I. Fedoryshyn1.5011115113LSep 4 · 12:30A. Lushchyk3.2511711113I. Fedoryshyn1.33911191LSep 3 · 17:30A. Lushchyk3.4081111113I. Fedoryshyn1.30117581
M. Baday10
LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123WAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152WAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov1.6711840M. Baday2.101311113
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