TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094670
Played Sep 8Finished
Maksym Baday
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11613151171517116
Artem Kasyanov
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 15-17
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 112 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Maksym Baday at 75.8%
112 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 119–25 Artem Kasyanov Artem Kasyanov has won 25 of their 144 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Baday
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
119-25 in 144
Baday
Correct
gap of 94 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1926 vs Kasyanov 1876
Baday
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 60% vs Kasyanov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 70% vs Kasyanov 50%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +3 · Kasyanov +1
Baday
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Baday)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasyanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.30 / Kasyanov 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Baday)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13094670
Baday1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 242 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it96% 132 of 137
Up 1–0, closes it86% 178 of 208
Kasyanov3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 29 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday6wins
AwayKasyanov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaday leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday100%3 of 3
AwayKasyanov57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday3Kasyanov7n = 10Kasyanov took 7 of 10
S2Baday5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Baday6Kasyanov4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S4Baday3Kasyanov4n = 7Kasyanov took 4 of 7
S5Baday3Kasyanov0n = 3Baday took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayKasyanovB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.136.7+1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime561 / 745 vs 404 / 70575.3%57.3%561 / 745 vs 404 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadayBaday 1.30/Kasyanov 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Baday · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday—611541A. Kasyanov—11811113
WAug 28 · 17:30M. Baday—911117123A. Kasyanov—115811102
LAug 28 · 12:30M. Baday—99100A. Kasyanov—1111123
LAug 27 · 17:39M. Baday—14740A. Kasyanov—1611113
WAug 27 · 16:30M. Baday—791114113A. Kasyanov—111181262
WAug 21 · 17:49M. Baday—11811113A. Kasyanov—611431
WAug 21 · 15:30M. Baday—1191111113A. Kasyanov—91131352
WAug 20 · 16:30M. Baday—1111113A. Kasyanov—9970
LAug 18 · 16:30M. Baday—1211441A. Kasyanov—14711113
WAug 14 · 17:29M. Baday—91111113A. Kasyanov—114491
M. Baday10
LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123WAug 28 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn2.101110871M. Baday1.6791211113WAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152WAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov1.6711840M. Baday2.101311113
A. Kasyanov10
WSep 8 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.20691181A. Kasyanov1.6111117113LSep 4 · 17:00A. Kasyanov1.678930S. Chuhai2.101111113WSep 4 · 16:00A. Kasyanov1.441111113A. Lushchyk2.638760WSep 4 · 15:30A. Kasyanov2.251113113I. Fedoryshyn1.5771190LSep 4 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.571111911113A. Kasyanov2.2513711782WSep 4 · 13:30A. Lushchyk2.634911101A. Kasyanov1.4411114123WSep 4 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.201117141A. Kasyanov1.6191111163LSep 3 · 17:00S. Chuhai2.2511129113A. Kasyanov1.576101181WSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113LAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123
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