TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031305
Played Aug 28Finished
Ruslan Ivanov
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113811411––––
Maksym Baday
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Ivanov above · Maksym Baday below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 58 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 54.6%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Ivanov 10–3 Maksym Baday Maksym Baday has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:26What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ivanov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Ivanov
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanov 1847 vs Baday 1882
Baday
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanov 20% vs Baday 40%
Baday
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanov 50% vs Baday 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanov -2 · Baday -3
Baday
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Ivanov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanov 1.67 / Baday 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Ivanov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13031305
Ivanov1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 44 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Baday2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanov7wins
AwayBaday3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanov75%3 of 4
AwayBaday33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanov4Baday6n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S2Ivanov7Baday3n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S3Ivanov7Baday3n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S4Ivanov4Baday4n = 8split evenly
S5Ivanov3Baday1n = 4Ivanov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanovBadayI − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.3+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanovBadayBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 89 vs 558 / 74167.4%75.3%60 / 89 vs 558 / 741Avg sets wonper match2.42.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovIvanov 1.67/Baday 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.2%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baday won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 13:00R. Ivanov—2111110113M. Baday—11961282
WAug 21 · 13:00R. Ivanov—81111113M. Baday—115881
LAug 20 · 13:00R. Ivanov—711821M. Baday—11811113
WAug 14 · 13:00R. Ivanov—1111113M. Baday—9490
WAug 13 · 14:00R. Ivanov—5101111113M. Baday—11126872
WAug 6 · 17:45R. Ivanov—117119113M. Baday—81181182
WAug 6 · 15:30R. Ivanov—81116123M. Baday—11714101
LJul 30 · 17:29R. Ivanov—1111711122M. Baday—513117143
WJul 30 · 15:30R. Ivanov—1111163M. Baday—87140
LJul 23 · 17:59R. Ivanov—6197101M. Baday—111711123
R. Ivanov10
WAug 28 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6114571162R. Ivanov2.201211116113LAug 28 · 16:30A. Kasyanov2.001111113R. Ivanov1.736590LAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152LAug 28 · 13:00R. Ivanov1.61123971A. Kasyanov2.20101111113LAug 28 · 12:00R. Ivanov2.10891191I. Fedoryshyn1.6711113113WAug 27 · 17:09R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.406680LAug 27 · 16:00A. Lushchyk3.75411811153R. Ivanov1.25115116132LAug 27 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.801111113R. Ivanov1.918940WAug 27 · 13:00M. Baday1.9111961282R. Ivanov1.802111110113WAug 27 · 12:00A. Kasyanov2.0015830R. Ivanov1.731711113
M. Baday10
LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123WAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152LAug 27 · 13:00M. Baday1.9111961282R. Ivanov1.802111110113
Upcoming Matches
R. Ivanov
Nothing scheduled
M. Baday
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