TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022587
Played Aug 27Finished
Maksym Baday
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1129116111210811
Ruslan Ivanov
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Baday to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Baday above · Ruslan Ivanov below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Maksym Baday at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Baday 3–10 Ruslan Ivanov Maksym Baday has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:54What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Ivanov
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baday 1925 vs Ivanov 1894
Baday
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baday 80% vs Ivanov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baday 70% vs Ivanov 40%
Baday
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baday +4 · Ivanov +2
Baday
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ivanov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivanov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaday 1.91 / Ivanov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ivanov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022587
Baday1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 5 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 7
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Ivanov1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite75% won 41 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaday3wins
AwayIvanov7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderIvanov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaday33.3%2 of 6
AwayIvanov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baday6Ivanov4n = 10Baday took 6 of 10
S2Baday3Ivanov7n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S3Baday3Ivanov7n = 10Ivanov took 7 of 10
S4Baday4Ivanov4n = 8split evenly
S5Baday1Ivanov3n = 4Ivanov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadayIvanovB − IBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.342.3−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadayIvanovBasisWin rate · lifetime556 / 735 vs 59 / 8475.7%70.2%556 / 735 vs 59 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.62.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovBaday 1.91/Ivanov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 13:00M. Baday—11961282R. Ivanov—2111110113
LAug 21 · 13:00M. Baday—115881R. Ivanov—81111113
WAug 20 · 13:00M. Baday—11811113R. Ivanov—711821
LAug 14 · 13:00M. Baday—9490R. Ivanov—1111113
LAug 13 · 14:00M. Baday—11126872R. Ivanov—5101111113
LAug 6 · 17:45M. Baday—81181182R. Ivanov—117119113
LAug 6 · 15:30M. Baday—11714101R. Ivanov—81116123
WJul 30 · 17:29M. Baday—513117143R. Ivanov—1111711122
LJul 30 · 15:30M. Baday—87140R. Ivanov—1111163
WJul 23 · 17:59M. Baday—111711123R. Ivanov—6197101
M. Baday10
WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baday1.201111113A. Lushchyk4.334680LSep 8 · 14:00M. Baday1.807340I. Fedoryshyn1.911111113WSep 8 · 13:00M. Baday1.3011131115113A. Kasyanov3.4061571762WSep 1 · 17:29I. Fedoryshyn2.006111241M. Baday1.7311814113WSep 1 · 16:30M. Baday1.361111113S. Chuhai3.009890WSep 1 · 15:30M. Baday1.141311113A. Lushchyk5.0011570LSep 1 · 14:00M. Baday1.80411101182I. Fedoryshyn1.91115123113LSep 1 · 13:00M. Baday1.30611541A. Kasyanov3.4011811113WAug 28 · 17:30A. Kasyanov3.50115811102M. Baday1.28911117123WAug 28 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn2.101110871M. Baday1.6791211113
R. Ivanov10
WAug 28 · 17:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6114571162R. Ivanov2.201211116113LAug 28 · 16:30A. Kasyanov2.001111113R. Ivanov1.736590LAug 28 · 15:00M. Baday2.251191013113R. Ivanov1.57611121152LAug 28 · 14:00R. Ivanov1.6711840M. Baday2.101311113LAug 28 · 13:00R. Ivanov1.61123971A. Kasyanov2.20101111113LAug 28 · 12:00R. Ivanov2.10891191I. Fedoryshyn1.6711113113WAug 27 · 17:09R. Ivanov1.301111113A. Lushchyk3.406680LAug 27 · 16:00A. Lushchyk3.75411811153R. Ivanov1.25115116132LAug 27 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.801111113R. Ivanov1.918940WAug 27 · 12:00A. Kasyanov2.0015830R. Ivanov1.731711113
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