TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13121248
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Adamiak
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111191214116119
Slawomir Dosz
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeSlawomir Dosz to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Slawomir Dosz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Slawomir Dosz at 72.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 4–19 Slawomir Dosz Grzegorz Adamiak has won 4 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Dosz beat Adamiak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Dosz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-19 in 23
Dosz
Wrong
gap of 15 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1712 vs Dosz 1832
Dosz
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 0% vs Dosz 40%
Dosz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 20% vs Dosz 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -5 · Dosz -1
Adamiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Dosz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 3.00 / Dosz 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Dosz)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13121248
Adamiak3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 66 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back14% 21 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 96
Dosz1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 12 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak2wins
AwayDosz8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDosz77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak1Dosz9n = 10Dosz took 9 of 10
S2Adamiak6Dosz4n = 10Adamiak took 6 of 10
S3Adamiak2Dosz8n = 10Dosz took 8 of 10
S4Adamiak2Dosz4n = 6Dosz took 4 of 6
S5Adamiak2Dosz3n = 5Dosz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakDoszA − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.538.7−4.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 771 vs 65 / 15043.5%43.3%335 / 771 vs 65 / 150Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszAdamiak 3.00/Dosz 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:55G. Adamiak49111191172S. Dosz48136117113
LSep 12 · 11:15G. Adamiak4412118762S. Dosz511081111113
LSep 12 · 04:10G. Adamiak4061111482S. Dosz40112511113
LOct 5 · 10:25G. Adamiak239590S. Dosz331111113
LOct 4 · 15:10G. Adamiak236980S. Dosz331111113
LSep 14 · 15:10G. Adamiak218670S. Dosz331111113
LSep 14 · 06:15G. Adamiak239860S. Dosz331111113
WSep 13 · 14:30G. Adamiak46711611113S. Dosz4511611982
WSep 13 · 06:15G. Adamiak47611118113S. Dosz3311621132
LJun 1 · 13:15G. Adamiak29911181S. Dosz3811511113
G. Adamiak10
LSep 13 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.50661121J. Zandecki1.5011119113LSep 13 · 06:55G. Adamiak3.00111191172S. Dosz1.36136117113LSep 13 · 05:40G. Adamiak3.0069111172A. Dosz1.36111176113LSep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.75115741A. Witkowski1.4071111113LSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:10A. Dosz1.4011118113G. Adamiak2.75951151LSep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.754570LSep 12 · 11:15S. Dosz1.331081111113G. Adamiak3.2512118762WSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123WSep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.531110791G. Adamiak2.3891211113
S. Dosz10
LSep 13 · 07:45A. Witkowski1.5711511113S. Dosz2.25911961WSep 13 · 06:55G. Adamiak3.00111191172S. Dosz1.36136117113LSep 13 · 06:05S. Dosz1.919101381J. Zandecki1.80111211113LSep 13 · 04:30S. Dosz2.008660K. Petas1.731111113WSep 13 · 03:45A. Dosz1.80121161172S. Dosz1.91149119113LSep 12 · 13:45S. Dosz2.251178111A. Witkowski1.5791111133LSep 12 · 12:30S. Dosz1.9141171192A. Dosz1.80118119113WSep 12 · 11:15S. Dosz1.331081111113G. Adamiak3.2512118762LSep 12 · 10:00J. Braun2.0011119113S. Dosz1.73771151LSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113
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