TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120028
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Adamiak
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711115711711––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 69.8% is still 69.8%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
69.8%
69.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-7
Point 63 set 4, 4-7 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 69.8%
63 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 8–42 Marcin Jadczyk Grzegorz Adamiak has won 8 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-42 in 50
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 34 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1738 vs Jadczyk 1865
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 60% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 30% vs Jadczyk 50%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak +1 · Jadczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 2.75 / Jadczyk 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Jadczyk)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13120028
Adamiak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog29% won 66 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back14% 21 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 96
Jadczyk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 405 of 637
Up 2–0, closes it98% 202 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 381
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak2wins
AwayJadczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak20%1 of 5
AwayJadczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamiak3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S3Adamiak2Jadczyk8n = 10Jadczyk took 8 of 10
S4Adamiak1Jadczyk6n = 7Jadczyk took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakJadczykA − JBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.041.0−8.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 775 vs 985 / 168043.6%58.6%338 / 775 vs 985 / 1680Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykAdamiak 2.75/Jadczyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.6%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 12:05G. Adamiak166550M. Jadczyk331111113
LJul 29 · 07:45G. Adamiak23121281M. Jadczyk43101111113
LJul 27 · 13:45G. Adamiak2571080M. Jadczyk341112113
WJul 27 · 06:05G. Adamiak46114128113M. Jadczyk46611101182
LJul 8 · 07:45G. Adamiak391014871M. Jadczyk46121211113
LJun 14 · 14:50G. Adamiak50111281272M. Jadczyk559101114113
LJun 14 · 08:00G. Adamiak207760M. Jadczyk331111113
LJun 7 · 14:50G. Adamiak30124771M. Jadczyk43101111113
LJun 7 · 08:00G. Adamiak391171291M. Jadczyk4481114113
WJun 6 · 08:00G. Adamiak4291111113M. Jadczyk33115891
G. Adamiak10
WSep 13 · 12:30G. Adamiak2.6361111113J. Zandecki1.44114961LSep 13 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7510840K. Petas1.251211113WSep 13 · 10:00A. Dosz1.36116101182G. Adamiak3.00611127113WSep 13 · 09:20G. Adamiak3.008111211113S. Dosz1.3611914692LSep 13 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.50661121J. Zandecki1.5011119113LSep 13 · 06:55G. Adamiak3.00111191172S. Dosz1.36136117113LSep 13 · 05:40G. Adamiak3.0069111172A. Dosz1.36111176113LSep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.75115741A. Witkowski1.4071111113LSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:10A. Dosz1.4011118113G. Adamiak2.75951151
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 13 · 12:55A. Dosz1.73118117113M. Jadczyk2.0071191182WSep 13 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.8311119113S. Dosz1.83871161LSep 13 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.67111011872K. Petas2.10812911113WSep 13 · 09:40J. Zandecki1.9111781192M. Jadczyk1.80511117113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz1.9111881272M. Jadczyk1.807111110113LSep 11 · 14:10K. Strowski2.7511112113M. Jadczyk1.40961181LSep 11 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.4491111862K. Wloczko2.63119911113WSep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.40911913113K. Kolodziej2.75118111152LSep 11 · 10:50M. Olejnik2.00111111113M. Jadczyk1.73961351WSep 11 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.501511771M. Jadczyk1.1717911113
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