TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109320
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Olejnik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191161113115––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Olejnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Olejnik above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 77 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Olejnik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Martin Olejnik 34–29 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 29 of their 63 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Olejnik beat Jadczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:34What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-29 in 63
Olejnik
Correct
gap of 5 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olejnik 1845 vs Jadczyk 1878
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olejnik 60% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olejnik 40% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olejnik -2 · Jadczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlejnik 2.00 / Jadczyk 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Jadczyk)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13109320
Olejnik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 56 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Jadczyk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 429 of 678
Up 2–0, closes it98% 215 of 219
Up 1–0, closes it83% 337 of 406
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlejnik5wins
AwayJadczyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlejnik100%3 of 3
AwayJadczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olejnik3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Olejnik4Jadczyk6n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S3Olejnik6Jadczyk4n = 10Olejnik took 6 of 10
S4Olejnik0Jadczyk6n = 6Jadczyk took 6 of 6
S5Olejnik4Jadczyk0n = 4Olejnik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlejnikJadczykO − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.140.0−3.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlejnikJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 825 vs 984 / 167954.4%58.6%449 / 825 vs 984 / 1679Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykOlejnik 2.00/Jadczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Olejnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 06:05M. Olejnik—1112113M. Jadczyk—91080
LSep 2 · 09:40M. Olejnik—10490M. Jadczyk—1211113
LSep 2 · 06:05M. Olejnik—571291M. Jadczyk—111110113
WAug 28 · 14:10M. Olejnik—10111112113M. Jadczyk—12891492
WAug 28 · 03:45M. Olejnik—3111110123M. Jadczyk—117512102
LAug 25 · 03:45M. Olejnik—1491191M. Jadczyk—16118113
WAug 21 · 03:45M. Olejnik—117148113M. Jadczyk—911121192
WAug 14 · 15:00M. Olejnik—111194113M. Jadczyk—63111142
LAug 14 · 06:05M. Olejnik—9360M. Jadczyk—1111113
LAug 11 · 06:05M. Olejnik—2630M. Jadczyk—1111113
M. Olejnik10
LSep 11 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.83111011113M. Olejnik1.83512691LSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781WSep 11 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.677111411113K. Wloczko2.1011416562LSep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.381191111123M. Olejnik1.53911813102LSep 11 · 07:20M. Olejnik1.61412381J. Kuzmicz2.20111011113WSep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.0091080M. Olejnik1.731112113WSep 11 · 04:55K. Wloczko2.25117141M. Olejnik1.5761111113WSep 11 · 03:25G. Poliniewicz4.3311611762M. Olejnik1.20411911113WSep 8 · 13:45J. Kosowski2.2044111282M. Olejnik1.611111410113LSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 11 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.4491111862K. Wloczko2.63119911113WSep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.40911913113K. Kolodziej2.75118111152WSep 11 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.501511771M. Jadczyk1.1717911113WSep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0010111181M. Jadczyk1.7312135113LSep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.0091080M. Olejnik1.731112113WSep 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.6711115113J. Kuzmicz2.10691171LSep 11 · 03:45K. Wloczko2.5011127113M. Jadczyk1.505101181WSep 10 · 13:45A. Grela1.80411741M. Jadczyk1.9111411113WSep 10 · 12:55K. Wloczko2.636480M. Jadczyk1.441111113WSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581
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