TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103319
Played Sep 10Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411114711411––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 63 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 56.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 50–43 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 43 of their 93 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Jadczyk beat Grela 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
50-43 in 93
Grela
Wrong
gap of 7 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1956 vs Jadczyk 1838
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 80% vs Jadczyk 40%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Jadczyk 40%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · Jadczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.80 / Jadczyk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grela)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13103319
Grela1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 169 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it76% 113 of 149
Jadczyk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 141 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back28% 41 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayJadczyk6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela66.7%2 of 3
AwayJadczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S2Grela8Jadczyk2n = 10Grela took 8 of 10
S3Grela6Jadczyk4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela4Jadczyk5n = 9Jadczyk took 5 of 9
S5Grela2Jadczyk5n = 7Jadczyk took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaJadczykG − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.043.0−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime637 / 1258 vs 980 / 167350.6%58.6%637 / 1258 vs 980 / 1673Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.80/Jadczyk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 07:00A. Grela—71111672M. Jadczyk—114811113
LSep 9 · 12:05A. Grela—21111482M. Jadczyk—119711113
WSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela—129147113M. Jadczyk—1011121182
WSep 4 · 03:45A. Grela—1111123M. Jadczyk—85100
WAug 26 · 12:55A. Grela—71111113M. Jadczyk—117781
WAug 26 · 03:45A. Grela—5111011113M. Jadczyk—11812442
LAug 21 · 06:55A. Grela—11115932M. Jadczyk—881111113
LAug 20 · 12:05A. Grela—661181M. Jadczyk—11118113
LAug 20 · 07:45A. Grela—911111152M. Jadczyk—118138113
LAug 15 · 09:40A. Grela—31191162M. Jadczyk—119116113
A. Grela10
WSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:15A. Grela1.831211510113G. Felkel1.83107111272LSep 10 · 10:00K. Wloczko2.38113119113A. Grela1.5371181172WSep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.4411116113K. Kolodziej2.63981151WSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990LSep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.8371111672M. Jadczyk1.83114811113WSep 10 · 05:50A. Grela1.8311114113M. Miastowski1.83291161WSep 10 · 04:00A. Grela1.53131111113K. Wloczko2.38159941LSep 10 · 03:00A. Grela2.00101141292G. Felkel1.731271110113LSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 10 · 12:55K. Wloczko2.636480M. Jadczyk1.441111113WSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581LSep 10 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.8311781122G. Felkel1.83611115113LSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 07:45K. Wloczko1.8315114113M. Jadczyk1.831361181WSep 10 · 07:00A. Grela1.8371111672M. Jadczyk1.83114811113LSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113LSep 10 · 04:20M. Jadczyk2.20511114132G. Felkel1.61116911153WSep 10 · 03:40M. Miastowski2.10881181M. Jadczyk1.6711112113LSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Nothing scheduled
M. Jadczyk
Sep 11 · 03:45M. Jadczyk1.50K. Wloczko2.50—Sep 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—Sep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00M. Olejnik1.73—Sep 11 · 06:55M. Jadczyk1.73M. Miastowski2.00—Sep 11 · 07:45M. Jadczyk1.17G. Poliniewicz4.50—Sep 11 · 10:50M. Jadczyk2.00M. Olejnik1.73—Sep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.40K. Kolodziej2.75—Sep 11 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.50K. Wloczko2.50—Sep 11 · 14:10M. Jadczyk1.40K. Strowski2.75—Sep 11 · 15:00M. Jadczyk1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—
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