TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119841
Played Sep 13Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181012119811711
Kacper Petas
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 74–46 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 46 of their 120 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:43What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-46 in 120
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 28 in 120, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1884 vs Petas 1890
Petas
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 60% vs Petas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 60% vs Petas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +2 · Petas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.67 / Petas 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadczyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13119841
Jadczyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 405 of 637
Up 2–0, closes it98% 202 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it83% 317 of 381
Petas2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk6wins
AwayPetas4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayPetas42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk3Petas7n = 10Petas took 7 of 10
S2Jadczyk5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S3Jadczyk5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S4Jadczyk5Petas3n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5Jadczyk3Petas1n = 4Jadczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykPetasJ − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.137.3+2.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime985 / 1680 vs 707 / 133358.6%53%985 / 1680 vs 707 / 1333Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.67/Petas 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk50118911113K. Petas3781111342
LAug 31 · 09:40M. Jadczyk238870K. Petas331111113
WAug 31 · 06:05M. Jadczyk4291111113K. Petas32114981
LAug 26 · 13:45M. Jadczyk368611111K. Petas3911114133
WAug 26 · 06:55M. Jadczyk4181111113K. Petas31114971
WAug 25 · 07:45M. Jadczyk501111107113K. Petas4283121182
WAug 20 · 13:45M. Jadczyk43101111113K. Petas31128651
WAug 20 · 06:55M. Jadczyk45411118113K. Petas4311681172
LAug 19 · 12:55M. Jadczyk46115101282K. Petas517111210113
LAug 19 · 03:45M. Jadczyk2510780K. Petas341211113
M. Jadczyk10
WSep 13 · 09:40J. Zandecki1.9111781192M. Jadczyk1.80511117113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz1.9111881272M. Jadczyk1.807111110113LSep 11 · 14:10K. Strowski2.7511112113M. Jadczyk1.40961181LSep 11 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.4491111862K. Wloczko2.63119911113WSep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.40911913113K. Kolodziej2.75118111152LSep 11 · 10:50M. Olejnik2.00111111113M. Jadczyk1.73961351WSep 11 · 07:45G. Poliniewicz4.501511771M. Jadczyk1.1717911113WSep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0010111181M. Jadczyk1.7312135113LSep 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.0091080M. Olejnik1.731112113WSep 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.6711115113J. Kuzmicz2.10691171
K. Petas10
WSep 13 · 09:00A. Dosz1.73118561K. Petas2.0091111113LSep 13 · 08:05A. Dosz1.7311811113K. Petas2.00911941WSep 13 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.57911111352K. Petas2.25117515113LSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:30S. Dosz2.008660K. Petas1.731111113WSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820WSep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.754570LSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171
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