TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120703
Played Sep 13Finished
Adam Dosz
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811511611––
Kacper Petas
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:01 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Dosz above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Dosz at 57.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dosz 10–7 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Dosz beat Petas 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dosz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Dosz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dosz 1958 vs Petas 1885
Dosz
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dosz 60% vs Petas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dosz 80% vs Petas 50%
Dosz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dosz +1 · Petas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDosz 1.73 / Petas 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Dosz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13120703
Dosz1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 76 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 36 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it88% 50 of 57
Petas2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDosz7wins
AwayPetas3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDosz83.3%5 of 6
AwayPetas50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dosz6Petas4n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S2Dosz7Petas3n = 10Dosz took 7 of 10
S3Dosz6Petas4n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S4Dosz5Petas4n = 9Dosz took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDoszPetasD − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.7+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDoszPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 317 vs 707 / 133458.4%53%185 / 317 vs 707 / 1334Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszDosz 1.73/Petas 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 08:05A. Dosz4111811113K. Petas33911941
WSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz4211119113K. Petas35981171
LSep 12 · 04:30A. Dosz35912771K. Petas43111011113
WMar 23 · 07:15A. Dosz48117116133K. Petas47611811112
WFeb 20 · 08:50A. Dosz3811124113K. Petas345101181
LFeb 19 · 13:50A. Dosz36791461K. Petas44111112103
WFeb 19 · 06:25A. Dosz331111113K. Petas193970
WAug 31 · 13:15A. Dosz44101111123K. Petas321237101
WAug 31 · 04:20A. Dosz4271111133K. Petas371196111
LAug 30 · 10:00A. Dosz51111171572K. Petas53861117113
A. Dosz10
WSep 13 · 08:05A. Dosz1.7311811113K. Petas2.00911941LSep 13 · 06:30A. Witkowski1.9181111113A. Dosz1.80117391WSep 13 · 05:40G. Adamiak3.0069111172A. Dosz1.36111176113WSep 13 · 04:55A. Dosz1.6181111113J. Zandecki2.20115861LSep 13 · 03:45A. Dosz1.80121161172S. Dosz1.91149119113WSep 12 · 14:10A. Dosz1.4011118113G. Adamiak2.75951151WSep 12 · 12:30S. Dosz1.9141171192A. Dosz1.80118119113WSep 12 · 11:40J. Braun2.7583130A. Dosz1.401111153WSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171WSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111
K. Petas10
LSep 13 · 08:05A. Dosz1.7311811113K. Petas2.00911941WSep 13 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.57911111352K. Petas2.25117515113LSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:30S. Dosz2.008660K. Petas1.731111113WSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820WSep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.754570LSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171WSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113
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