TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13119550
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Zeman
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411311811––––
Jan Cernik
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Zeman above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 48 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jan Cernik at 65.2%
48 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zeman 5–10 Jan Cernik Lukas Zeman has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Cernik
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1894 vs Cernik 2037
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 100% vs Cernik 80%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 70% vs Cernik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +5 · Cernik -1
Zeman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 3.00 / Cernik 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Cernik)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13119550
Zeman3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 33 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Cernik1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 83 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it88% 63 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman3wins
AwayCernik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman50%2 of 4
AwayCernik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Zeman3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S3Zeman3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Zeman3Cernik5n = 8Cernik took 5 of 8
S5Zeman2Cernik1n = 3Zeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanCernikZ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.542.4−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 520 vs 193 / 32550.4%59.4%262 / 520 vs 193 / 325Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikZeman 3.00/Cernik 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 13:29L. Zeman4411912482J. Cernik529111011113
LAug 16 · 12:00L. Zeman31811481J. Cernik4211911113
WMay 9 · 12:59L. Zeman51138712113J. Cernik521111111092
LMay 9 · 12:00L. Zeman238960J. Cernik331111113
WApr 12 · 21:28L. Zeman501171011113J. Cernik4361112682
LApr 12 · 18:00L. Zeman4011118101J. Cernik4513911123
LMar 27 · 02:30L. Zeman36981271J. Cernik43111110113
LMar 24 · 09:30L. Zeman279990J. Cernik331111113
LNov 17 · 22:30L. Zeman4413119111J. Cernik48111311133
WNov 17 · 20:00L. Zeman3961111113J. Cernik33119671
L. Zeman10
WSep 13 · 14:00M. Zahradka2.10811121192L. Zeman1.67117149113WSep 13 · 09:30L. Zeman1.721111122113E. Mares2.0086141142WSep 13 · 08:30A. Barton2.50291191L. Zeman1.5011119113WSep 13 · 07:30L. Zeman1.5711911113M. Huk2.25511741WSep 13 · 06:30E. Mares1.80811791L. Zeman1.9111311113WSep 12 · 12:59E. Mares1.91531120102L. Zeman1.801111818123LSep 12 · 12:00L. Zeman2.7581190T. Kos1.401113113WSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113LSep 12 · 10:00L. Zeman2.508140L. Jindrak1.501111113LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113
J. Cernik10
LSep 13 · 14:30J. Cernik1.5351090T. Kos2.381112113WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:00J. Cernik1.281111113M. Kratochvil3.508630WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113LAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992
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