TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120174
Played Sep 12Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51131111820181012
Lukas Zeman
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingErik Mares above · Lukas Zeman below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 20-18
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 109 set 5, 10-12
109 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 26–36 Lukas Zeman Erik Mares has won 26 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zeman beat Mares 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.91 / Zeman 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mares)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120174
Mares1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 104 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 64
Zeman1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 37 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayZeman5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares75%3 of 4
AwayZeman66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S2Mares3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Mares6Zeman4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Mares6Zeman3n = 9Mares took 6 of 9
S5Mares2Zeman2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresZemanM − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.2+0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime602 / 1200 vs 255 / 51350.2%49.7%602 / 1200 vs 255 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.91/Zeman 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares36891451L. Zeman44111112103
WSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares46111311113L. Zeman38715881
WAug 15 · 16:00E. Mares4711916113L. Zeman417111491
LAug 14 · 23:00E. Mares4311118852L. Zeman43461111113
LAug 8 · 11:30E. Mares371191161L. Zeman3913114113
WAug 8 · 06:00E. Mares44121110113L. Zeman391081291
WJul 27 · 21:30E. Mares5511111111113L. Zeman4213134482
WJul 27 · 19:00E. Mares46761111113L. Zeman4011115492
LJul 3 · 22:30E. Mares44511611112L. Zeman51117119133
LJul 3 · 12:30E. Mares2357110L. Zeman351111133
E. Mares10
LSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113WSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113LSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos1.6181111123E. Mares2.201164101WSep 12 · 08:00E. Mares2.201111113L. Jindrak1.618960LSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos1.7311111113E. Mares2.00571181WSep 12 · 06:00E. Mares1.501111113M. Huk2.502960LSep 7 · 20:59E. Mares1.3311101412122P. Bradach3.255121214143LSep 7 · 20:00P. Bradach2.75531112203E. Mares1.401111810182LSep 7 · 19:00J. Kycelt2.3812121410113E. Mares1.531010161292
L. Zeman10
LSep 12 · 12:00L. Zeman2.7581190T. Kos1.401113113WSep 12 · 11:30E. Mares1.67891451L. Zeman2.10111112113LSep 12 · 10:00L. Zeman2.508140L. Jindrak1.501111113LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123WSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102LSep 1 · 22:00L. Zeman1.577118101M. Huk2.2511711123LAug 16 · 13:29J. Cernik1.369111011113L. Zeman3.0011912482LAug 16 · 12:00J. Cernik1.3611911113L. Zeman3.00811481
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