TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115036
Played Sep 12Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111412510––
Lukas Zeman
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Zeman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Lukas Zeman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 5-10
Point 80 set 4, 5-10 — our read held Lukas Zeman at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 26–35 Lukas Zeman Erik Mares has won 26 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-35 in 61
Zeman
Correct
gap of 9 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1866 vs Zeman 1805
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Zeman 40%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Zeman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Zeman -3
Zeman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.67 / Zeman 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Mares)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115036
Mares1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 149 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it85% 93 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it71% 121 of 171
Zeman2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 40 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares6wins
AwayZeman4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares80%4 of 5
AwayZeman60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S3Mares6Zeman4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Mares6Zeman2n = 8Mares took 6 of 8
S5Mares2Zeman2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresZemanM − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.838.7+3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime602 / 1199 vs 255 / 51250.2%49.8%602 / 1199 vs 255 / 512Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.67/Zeman 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares—111311113L. Zeman—715881
WAug 15 · 16:00E. Mares—11916113L. Zeman—7111491
LAug 14 · 23:00E. Mares—11118852L. Zeman—461111113
LAug 8 · 11:30E. Mares—1191161L. Zeman—13114113
WAug 8 · 06:00E. Mares—121110113L. Zeman—1081291
WJul 27 · 21:30E. Mares—11111111113L. Zeman—13134482
WJul 27 · 19:00E. Mares—761111113L. Zeman—11115492
LJul 3 · 22:30E. Mares—511611112L. Zeman—117119133
LJul 3 · 12:30E. Mares—57110L. Zeman—1111133
WJul 2 · 13:00E. Mares—1111113L. Zeman—4690
E. Mares10
WSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos1.61111280E. Mares2.201314113LSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos1.6181111123E. Mares2.201164101WSep 12 · 08:00E. Mares2.201111113L. Jindrak1.618960LSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos1.7311111113E. Mares2.00571181WSep 12 · 06:00E. Mares1.501111113M. Huk2.502960LSep 7 · 20:59E. Mares1.3311101412122P. Bradach3.255121214143LSep 7 · 20:00P. Bradach2.75531112203E. Mares1.401111810182LSep 7 · 19:00J. Kycelt2.3812121410113E. Mares1.531010161292WSep 7 · 18:30E. Mares1.2511119113M. Zahradka3.75841151WSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750
L. Zeman10
LSep 12 · 10:00L. Zeman2.508140L. Jindrak1.501111113LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123WSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102LSep 1 · 22:00L. Zeman1.577118101M. Huk2.2511711123LAug 16 · 13:29J. Cernik1.369111011113L. Zeman3.0011912482LAug 16 · 12:00J. Cernik1.3611911113L. Zeman3.00811481WAug 16 · 11:00M. Kratochvil2.10561281L. Zeman1.67111110113WAug 16 · 10:30L. Zeman1.83911611113J. Kanera1.8311911942
Upcoming Matches
E. Mares3 of 4 neutral
L. Zeman4 of 6 neutral
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