TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13094174
Played Sep 7Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117115––––
Jakub Kycelt
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jakub Kycelt below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 49 set 3, 11-5
49 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 12–9 Jakub Kycelt Jakub Kycelt has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kycelt beat Mares 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kycelt form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.22 / Kycelt 4.00
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Mares)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13094174
Mares1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 145 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it87% 90 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it72% 118 of 165
Kycelt4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares6wins
AwayKycelt4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares75%6 of 8
AwayKyceltn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares8Kycelt2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Mares5Kycelt5n = 10split evenly
S3Mares7Kycelt3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Mares4Kycelt2n = 6Mares took 4 of 6
S5Mares1Kycelt3n = 4Kycelt took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresKyceltM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.635.5+7.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresKyceltBasisWin rate · lifetime597 / 1189 vs 158 / 31750.2%49.8%597 / 1189 vs 158 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.22/Kycelt 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 15:30E. Mares—1111109172J. Kycelt—591211193
WSep 2 · 01:30E. Mares—111111113J. Kycelt—913691
LAug 31 · 15:00E. Mares—111111101J. Kycelt—61313123
WAug 1 · 20:58E. Mares—116711113J. Kycelt—91111782
WAug 1 · 20:30E. Mares—1111113J. Kycelt—3650
WAug 1 · 17:29E. Mares—1111113J. Kycelt—5570
LAug 1 · 15:00E. Mares—13111111122J. Kycelt—151395143
WJul 30 · 22:30E. Mares—1111113J. Kycelt—4660
WJun 29 · 20:30E. Mares—1111113J. Kycelt—7760
LJun 24 · 23:30E. Mares—76131182J. Kycelt—1111115113
E. Mares10
WSep 7 · 16:00E. Mares1.251111113M. Zahradka3.753870LSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:00E. Mares1.83131111113T. Postelt1.83157561LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113
J. Kycelt10
WSep 7 · 18:00P. Bradach1.803660J. Kycelt1.911111113LSep 7 · 16:30T. Postelt1.7381111123J. Kycelt2.001199101WSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:30M. Zahradka1.91511991J. Kycelt1.8011611113LSep 2 · 21:28J. Kycelt1.50116871M. Huk2.5041111113LSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113WSep 2 · 19:30J. Ruzicka2.509750J. Kycelt1.501111113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Kycelt1.531111113M. Huk2.388780WSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 01:30J. Kycelt2.63913691E. Mares1.44111111113
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