TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087586
Played Sep 7Finished
Tomas Postelt
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191191210––
Jakub Kycelt
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Postelt to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Jakub Kycelt below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Postelt at 54.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 17–12 Jakub Kycelt Jakub Kycelt has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:26What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Postelt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-12 in 29
Postelt
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1768 vs Kycelt 1814
Kycelt
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 20% vs Kycelt 60%
Kycelt
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 40% vs Kycelt 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -3 · Kycelt +2
Postelt
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Postelt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.73 / Kycelt 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kycelt)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087586
Postelt1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 61 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it63% 37 of 59
Kycelt2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt6wins
AwayKycelt4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPostelt leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt100%3 of 3
AwayKycelt57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt3Kycelt7n = 10Kycelt took 7 of 10
S2Postelt6Kycelt4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S3Postelt7Kycelt3n = 10Postelt took 7 of 10
S4Postelt5Kycelt3n = 8Postelt took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltKyceltP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.5+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltKyceltBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 744 vs 158 / 31646.2%50%344 / 744 vs 158 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.73/Kycelt 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 20:00T. Postelt—1111113J. Kycelt—6840
WSep 1 · 17:30T. Postelt—81111113J. Kycelt—116781
LSep 1 · 14:30T. Postelt—1051151J. Kycelt—12112113
LAug 1 · 18:00T. Postelt—511811112J. Kycelt—119119133
WJun 29 · 14:00T. Postelt—71111113J. Kycelt—116791
LJun 25 · 02:58T. Postelt—1011451J. Kycelt—12911113
WJun 25 · 24:30T. Postelt—121011113J. Kycelt—1012551
WJun 5 · 02:00T. Postelt—134117133J. Kycelt—1111411112
LMay 28 · 17:00T. Postelt—31190J. Kycelt—1113113
WMay 28 · 14:30T. Postelt—51811113J. Kycelt—1116991
T. Postelt10
WSep 7 · 16:59M. Zahradka1.83716111182T. Postelt1.83111878113LSep 7 · 15:00T. Postelt1.8035100M. Zahradka1.911111123LSep 7 · 14:00E. Mares1.83131111113T. Postelt1.83157561LSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271WSep 6 · 08:30T. Postelt1.6111129113O. Kolisnyk2.205101181LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123WSep 2 · 20:58T. Postelt1.731111153J. Ruzicka2.0079130WSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113LSep 2 · 19:00M. Huk2.1061112113T. Postelt1.671171091
J. Kycelt10
LSep 7 · 17:29E. Mares1.221111113J. Kycelt4.004750WSep 7 · 15:30J. Kycelt2.50591211193E. Mares1.501111109172WSep 7 · 14:30M. Zahradka1.91511991J. Kycelt1.8011611113LSep 2 · 21:28J. Kycelt1.50116871M. Huk2.5041111113LSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113WSep 2 · 19:30J. Ruzicka2.509750J. Kycelt1.501111113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Kycelt1.531111113M. Huk2.388780WSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 01:30J. Kycelt2.63913691E. Mares1.44111111113LSep 2 · 24:30M. Huk2.5011612113J. Kycelt1.508111081
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